Thursday, September 27, 2012

Expectations, Like Most Anything, Are Bigger in Texas

Dallas Mavericks: Let's not mince words, the championship window for the Dallas Mavericks has closed as quickly as it opened and will be shut for the foreseeable future. Those title hopes were dashed as soon as the Mavs let Tyson Chandler, the very engine of our newfound defense, and J.J. Barea walk.The plan was, of course, to take advantage of Dwight Howard and Deron Williams' expiring contracts and discontent with their surroundings and swoop in armed with deep pockets and have those two join forces with Dirk to pry that window wide open again. That plan worked out about as well as Custer's last stand (doing my best with this Western theme). However, for a team that missed out on marquee free agents, lost their sixth man in Jason Terry, was filled with has-beens (Shawn Marion and Vince Carter) and never-was(es) (arguably Vince Carter), and momentarily stranded Dirk Nowitzki with the untapped potential of Roddy Beaubois, streaky Delonte West, and tough but unrefined abilities of big men Brendan Haywood and Ian Mahinmi, they've managed to turn an absolute failure of an offseason into an at the very least respectable one.

The court vision and experience of Jason Kidd will surely be missed, but Darren Collison is still a young point guard with a ton of upside who needs to improve his passing, but he can fill it up, break down defenses, and push the ball better than Kidd can at this stage in his career. Collison's addition should free up more shots for everyone on the court and a faster tempo could do wonders for this team, who looked outright stagnant at times during their first round thumping at the hands of the Thunder. Chris Kaman was an All-Star caliber center before the injury bug bit him again, and again, and again. Those injuries and poor teams have prevented Kaman from being the dark horse All Star center pick that he's capable of being. Whether or not those days are behind him, time will tell, but this guy does a lot of things well on the court and has a nice touch for a big man. In all likelihood I'm over hyping his potential at this point in his career, but I'd rather have him in the middle than the aforementioned Mahinmi and Haywood, even with the injury risk. Elton Brand doesn't exactly fit the bill of the youth movement that this team may need sooner rather than later, but I think you can't over value the fact that the Mavs will at last have a scoring power forward other than Dirk Nowitzki. Elton will be able to bang bodies when he has to and should prove to be a nice option in the half court set, buying Dirk some much needed time on the bench down the stretch of the season. Don't underestimate the value of the addition of Dahntay Jones as a perimeter defender. He should fill the void left by Deshawn Stevenson two years ago and take some of the defensive burden off of Shawn Marion. Those two on the floor together should help Dallas grind out some close games that they simply couldn't finish last year.

Dirk Nowitzki will be Dirk Nowitzki, barring a substantial injury, his production shouldn't fall off much, if at all. Yeah, Dirk's getting up there in years, but we're talking about a guy who, in his prime, was never very quick, and couldn't jump over a roll of nickels. His shooting stroke isn't going anywhere and he's no longer timid when it comes to taking and making the big shot, and absorbing contact along the way. Dirk's not superhuman, he won't be playing 45 minutes a night, but the only reason his productivity should fall off is because there's finally more than two scorers on the squad.

Perhaps the biggest wild card on the team is O.J. Mayo. Mayo was a gifted and prolific scorer at USC, but has failed to have those numbers translate consistently to the NBA. A big reason for that may be the fact that he was eclipsed by Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, ZBo, and even Mike Conley in Memphis. The Grizz never really had the necessity for Mayo to "be the man" so to speak. In filling the sneakers and high socks of Jason Terry, Mayo will have to step up. There's a chance Mayo could fill that void and then some. If Mayo has the breakout season he's capable of that championship window may not stay closed for long. The Mavs turned a garbage offseason into silver. Silver is not gold, but it's certainly valuable in it's own right. Don't sleep on this team just yet.

Houston Rockets: It's hard to feel sorry for a man making $25 million dollars based on a little over a month of work, but Jeremy Lin may just fit that bill. The Asian-American underdog that took a team on his diminutive shoulders and a nation by storm restored a floundering Knicks team to relevance now heads south to Houston with near impossible expectations to which he must live up. It seems the Rockets are suffering from temporary Linsanity and have given Lin money that the Knicks would have been foolish to match. Lin was always a little careless with the ball and was in a point guard embellishing pick and roll based system under Mike D'Antoni.Miami proved that Lin was very mortal and Lin injured himself before further evidence could be compiled to back that up. With that kind of contract, Lin is no longer the underdog no one has heard of and will now have a target on his back all season long. In addition, Lin's supporting cast consists of two promising rookies, Royce White and Jeremy Lamb, and a bunch of role players (Asik, Patterson, Parsons, Delfino). The only other star on that squad, Kevin Martin, is coming off a terrible season under Kevin McHale, so his productivity this season has to be a question mark.  Odds are it's going to be a long season in Houston and it won't be Jeremy Lin's fault. At the very least, Houston should sell tickets, given the nation's fascination with Lin and the community's history of embracing Asian stars (Yao), but once they see the product on the floor, I doubt those crowds will last all four years of Lin's contract.

San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs have proven more effectively than any other team in the league, their ability to adapt in order to win. Never was that more apparent than last season when the rate of play was picked up at the expense of their once legendary defense. The Spurs proved they were more than the big three, with contributing pieces in Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and the late season acquisitions of Boris Diaw and Captain Jack. As great as the Spurs did picking up the pace and conserving Duncan's minutes, the Spurs still looked old and slow by seasons end. To an extent, that speaks volumes about the quality of the West champion Thunder, but in order for this team to make yet another run towards a title, one of the members of that bench mob, must become the integral fourth to compliment the older big three a la Rajon Rondo in Boston. Now, clearly Rajon Rondo is a special player, but the point is, a member of San Antonio's still very deep team must prepare to take the reigns from Tony, Timmy and Manu. I think this is entirely possible, given how well this bench has shown they can play. Another year to grow into themselves and each other could be just what the Spurs need to take that next step. With the Thunder still present and the newly reformed Lakers poised for a title run, it's tough to favor the Spurs. However, rest assured, they'll be making a title push of their own and it won't be strictly based on tradition.

New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets have taken the fast track to rebuilding courtesy of the draft lottery. Anthony Davis has to be the favorite for Rookie of the Year, with so many skills on both ends of the the floor. He's big and has the instincts to have an impact immediately defensively and has a variety of skills offensively that should prevent him from becoming just another name on the list of Big Bodies Big Busts. His movement in transition is truly exemplary and while indeed the NBA is not college, I'd be shocked if he wasn't a quick study on the offensive end as well. Austin Rivers is likely a bit overrated going in to his rookie season, but he has a lot of upside and appears to have the intangible "clutch gene". Vasquez played well in spurts last season, Most Improved Player Ryan Anderson will spread the floor, the forgotten Lopez should clog the paint effectively. The biggest reason for optimism in the Big Easy is the apparent healthy return of Eric Gordon, who lead the team in scoring and assists before his early exit from competition. Had Gordon played at all last year, there's no way the Hornets would have wound up looking as bad as they did. No way did they make the playoffs, but no way were they in the basement either. The Hornets are a couple years away, at least, but the pieces are there and the young Monty Williams appears to have their collective ear. The Hornets will be ready to sting again soon.

Memphis Grizzlies: Everyone's favorite Western Conference sleeper will once again try to make a run after a brutal battle with Paul, Griffin, and the Clips. The Grizz hold likely one of the best 1-5 line ups in the league, especially for a small market squad. For what it's worth, Bayless should fill the void left by Mayo and Darrell Arthur's return to action as a hustle player is huge. However, with the exception of Speights, Memphis is still not as deep as you'd like to see and while it has been far from a flop, Gay and Randolph have yet to look completely compatible on the floor. Lionel Hollins will have yet another turn with this young group. Time will tell if they can get over the hump.







Monday, September 17, 2012

Pacific Specifics

A title much easier to read than say beckons me to share my thoughts on the season outlook for NBA teams in the Pacific Division.

Los Angeles Lakers: To get the obvious out of the way: The Lakers have improved a great deal this offseason and will certainly be legitimate contenders for the Larry O'Brien trophy, as they continue to prove that the draft is for squares. The one thing I will say that may raise some eyebrows is that I don't think Dwight Howard's acquisition has all that much to do with it. Dwight's an absolute talent on both ends of the floor by virtue of his size and athleticism alone. Couple those attributes with decent hook shot and work-in-progress Duncan-esque bank shot he's trying to cultivate and you have a man who's going to improve any team for which he suits up, to put it mildly. I only mean to point out that Lakers have traded, much to the euphoria of Sixer fans, the only center in the NBA whose name can justifiably be said in the same sentence as Dwight Howard in Andrew Bynum.(Unless that sentence is: Unlike Sammy Dalembert, Dwight Howard prefers to dwell in the paint.) Simply put, having a big man in the middle was never a problem in Los Angeles and I feel the Lakers' imminent success has a lot more to do with other new Lakers joining Dwight and the perennial Kobe in purple and gold.

For the record, I do think Howard is a better fit for the Lakers than Bynum was, which is saying something. Dwight runs the floor a bit better and will likely mesh more with the Princeton offense. Dwight's touches, should he be content with them, should come from boards and he should see plenty touches on pick and roll plays from a man who seems to define it for a generation; Steve Nash. Bynum likely is the better scorer at the position, but a team as suddenly deep as the Lake-show should fare just fine with Dwight down low. It's fair to at least wonder if Dwight will be reticently resistant to being the third or fourth option offensively (Kobe, Pau, Nash himself?), but winning can be the best panacea for those kinds of issues, and the Lakers will be doing a lot of that.

Steve Nash's pedigree speaks for itself, quite frankly. A genuine floor general with still some gas in the tank at the helm of a veritable all star team. After years of clawing an otherwise pretty pedestrian team into contention with some help from Amare Stoudemire, he will have more weapons than he'll know what to do with in L.A. Visions of his pick and roll with Dwight, pick and pop with Pau, and just plain playing with Kobe is hard not to salivate over. The talent around Nash alone will lighten his load and with his court vision and scoring ability in his own right, he, in turn, takes pressure off his teammates (Pau should flourish with someone getting him his shots in his spots. In addition, the Lakers still have whom I consider one of the better back up points in the league in Steve Blake.

Antawn Jamison received a measure of vindication after putting in his time as a lone vet on a rough Cavs squad. Dan Gilbert likely had high hopes of Jamison finally being the Robin that (Batman) LeBron James never had. Obviously that never came to pass. Jamison showed class in playing hard night after night and will now have the best chance of his career to capture a ring. Jordan Hill and Jodie Meeks have proven that while inconsistent, they can contribute to a team with the right guidance and much success will depend on World Peace's mindset and conditioning, but Kobe has some pieces around him that should help lighten his load and unlike the past couple of seasons, the Lakers have a true bench and point guard. Should Kobe trust his teammates enough to take some of that burden off him (and he clearly has a habit of rising to the occasion and making writers who question him look pretty foolish), he should be able to lead his new teammates down Hollywood's Redemption Road towards a championship.

Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers have once again proven that they're no longer content with being perceived as the little brothers of the Staples Center and have had a solid off season in their own right.With the acquisitions of Lamar Odom and Jamal Crawford, LOB City should prove to have more dimensions to it than highlight dunks. Blake Griffin must prove a similar point if he wishes to show that he's up to the task of being the future of this team. His hard work is evident, as he showed flashes of a fifteen foot jumper and some post moves, but as of this writing he's still very much the raw, hard working, super athlete who jumped over a car and turned "Mozgov" into a verb, rather than a basketball player. Griffin has yet to even approach his ceiling and potential as a player, so don't read into this as too harsh of a critique, but there's no denying that his game has yet to reach the level of his vertical leap.

Blake Griffin did his part in turning Clipper culture from miserable to hopeful and Chris Paul turned hopeful into prideful. Chris Paul has led by example and injected toughness and winning expectations into a once lost franchise. Never was this never-say-die attitude more evident than during the Clips' unprecedented Game 1 comeback against the Grizzlies this past postseason. The new chip-on-our-shoulder attitude seems to run deep as they appear to have a roster filled with blue collar bad boys (using that term loosely) Matt Barnes, DeAndre Jordan, Caron Butler, and potentially Kenyon Martin to help continue the mental makeover. Grant Hill and Billups' veteran leadership should work wonders with the youth in the lockeroom, and time will tell just much those two can contribute on the floor.

Crawford should fill the scoring void left by Nick Young's absence exceptionally and you'd have to believe that Lamar Odom can only improve upon a failed season in Dallas as he once again calls Los Angeles home. You can't overstate the importance of the role Mo Williams played as the unsung backup last season. His absence puts more pressure on Billups to be healthy, Bledsoe to develop, and Crawford to run an offense when CP3 is catching a rare blow. Other than that I see the Clips team that appears to be growing into itself right on schedule and will look to advance at least one round deeper into the playoffs this time around.

Golden State Warriors: With the movement of Monta Ellis and Dorell Wright, the final remnants of Nellie ball appear to be behind us. The true Mark Jackson era has officially begun in Oakland, and as expected there's a lot of impetus on molding youth from scratch. The status of this team is a relative question mark because, quite frankly, so many of these players are largely unknown. Brandon Rush, Jarrett Jack, and Charles Jenkins have performed nicely in complimentary roles, but more will surely be asked of them this season on this team than there ever has been before. Klay Thompson will look to build off a solid season while Carl Landry will seek to prove that his issues with Monty Williams were an isolated incident and he's ready to commit to playing hard on both ends of the court. The Warriors have high hopes for Harrison Barnes and his ability to do a little bit of everything on the floor and there's a tremendous cast of vets to guide him along the way.

David Lee is a double double machine and Richard Jefferson is another jack of all trades type that any team would love to have. The major concerns surrounding this team has to do with the fact that they seem to have invested a lot of their potential in some very injury prone guys. When healthy, Andrew Bogut is as good as any center in the league. I realize the implications of that statement and stick by it. Andris Biedrins is a nice reserve big man and looked like a future all star when the Warriors were thumping the top seeded Mavs in 2007 (the last time he was healthy), but he hasn't been the same since. In addition, the man worthy of being the face of this franchise, Steph Curry, is always one ankle tweak away from sitting out half the season. Couple these rather ominous "what ifs" with the fact that we're not entirely sure how Mark Jackson will use all of these pieces even if he has them all at his disposal and we're left with yet another rebuilding season for the Warriors, with flashes of brilliance and high hopes for next year. Here's hoping that they stay healthy enough for the outlook to be that bright.

Sacramento Kings: On paper, these guys don't look half bad. A lot of young up and comers with nothing but upside ready to ruffle some feathers amongst the West's elite. The only problem is, this game isn't played on paper, and on the basketball court this team has a lot of issues. The ebb and flow of DeMarcus Cousins' maturity aside, this team is full of players who need the ball to be successful and no one who wants to share it. This team had all but tuned out Paul Westphal, so there's something to be said for Keith Smart having his first full season as head coach, but there's a real log jam of score first guards on that team which the addition of Aaron Brooks doesn't help and Thomas Robinson walks into a program where the inside touches will likely be made by Cousins and Jason Thompson. The bottom line is that a lineup of Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, Aaron Brooks, and Marcus Thornton looks great on a fantasy team, but likely won't translate to real wins in the competitive West.

Phoenix Suns: If you'll excuse the obvious word play, as one sun sets another one rises. Steve Nash leaves the Valley of the Sun, but Alvin Gentry and management have done a tremendous job of ensuring that this team won't quietly fade off into the... well you get the idea. Former reserve Goran Dragic returns to Phoenix after cutting his teeth in Houston and after excelling in Houston, should be able to acclimate well to being the point man in Phoenix. The Suns have shown they have no real intentions of slowing the pace of play by signing swing man forward, Michael Beasley, who should rebound from an off year in Minnesota within a less stringent offense. For a time, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat seemed to be the lone bright spots in Phoenix (excluding Nash, of course) they should continue to perform. I'm sure the Suns would prefer to have Eric Gordon rather than Shannon Brown in their back court, but the potential for Telfair, Wes Johnson, and Shannon Brown to improve is present and worth mentioning. The signings of Scola and O'Neal are eyebrow raising, and you have to wonder if they can keep up with the rate of play. I think you have to wonder if Jermaine O'Neal has anything to give period, quite frankly. Scola struggled last season under McHale and failed to contribute consistently in any facet of the game. You have to wonder how he'll fare under Gentry. Maybe the organization sees him a safety valve in half court sets, a la Elton Brand in his first years in Philly, but we all know how that looked for a while there. The post Steve Nash era will have it's rough spots, but it's definitely worth keeping an eye on.