Denver Nuggets: There's no denying that the Nuggets will continue to have one of the most dynamic and entertaining offenses in the league and George Karl's teams have always been notorious for their depth and reliance, almost to a fault, on a 12 man rotation. The Nugget's ability to turn the corner will be determined by Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried's continued growth and development, for which both appear to be poised. The heady vet, Andre Miller, and a vet with a rather swollen head, Andre Iguodala in the Rockies. Part of the Nuggets success last season, pushing the Lakers to the the limit in the playoffs, was Danilo Gallinari's ability to step up and make big shots. He was about as close to a superstar as Denver had. Iguodala's addition creates an interesting wrinkle in the Nuggets' potential. Iggy's rise to semi-stardom after years of only talking the talk and not walking the walk had everything to do with Doug Collins' coaching and his time on the national team. Iggy's true niche on the court is that of a playmaker, when he had a proverbial leash on him and was not so dead set on being a shotmaker, both Iggy and the Sixers never looked better. If Iggy can maintain that playmaking mindset, the sky is the limit for both he and the Nuggets, but if he reverts back to old habits in this freer offense, the Nuggets organization my live to regret his acquisition. It should be noted that no matter what, Iggy has the potential to flourish in that fast-paced offense, and with Gallo and Iggy locking down the perimeter, if Javale McGee can play with his head on his shoulders consistently, as he did last post season, the Nuggets may fulfill Mile High expectations.
Minnesota Timberwolves: The Wolves finally appeared to have a team tailored for Rick Adleman's system and interest in Wolves basketball was at its highest since Kevin Garnett and, dare I reference him, Spree, suited up in the Twin Cities, then the injury bug bit and bit hard. Rubio's recovery will be something to monitor going forward, but there's no question that the real blow here concerns the implications Kevin Love's broken hand The team will once again face an uphill battle until those two are on the court again, but there's a chance that some saving grace can be found in the rest of the roster. Obvious questions linger about how one-time superstar Brandon Roy's knees will hold up to the grind of the NBA season. The Wolves, likely didn't expect to have to lean on him as much as they might have to at the season's begining, but that surgery worked wonders for Kobe, and it should put some tread back on Roy's tires. If he can stay healthy, Kirilenko could flourish outside of Utah coming off a season overseas. Rick Adleman's offense isn't exactly free, but the change of scenery and a lack of other options could revitalize AK 47's once promising career. Love's absence will create ample opportunity for Derrick Williams to prove his mettle, and a banged up Luke Ridnour may well be a blessing in disguise for the the Wolves, as minutes will open up for the dynamic JJ Barea. As encouraging as all of this sounds, there's no replacing a Kevin Love, or even Ricky Rubio and the fact that your two best players otherwise are walking injury risks is beyond disheartening. As a Wolves fan, you have to hope you can tread water in their absence, but regardless, this team only goes as far as a healthy Love and Rubio lead them.
Portland Trail Blazers: To say that last year's season in Rip City was a disappointment is an understatement and this year will likely wind up being more of the same. However, up-and-coming rookie guard, Damian Lillard could go a long way in rewriting that script. Lillard's preseason indicated that he's prepared for the NBA game, and the prospect of him playing alongside the talented LaMarcus Aldridge is enough to have Portland fans salivating for basketball. The Blazers haven't been this excited about a rookie since the ill-fated Greg Oden. The Blazer rotation is rounded out by two versatile swingmen in, Nicolas Batum and Wes Matthews who still have a lot of upside to their game, but even if all three of these players play to their potential Portland's squad is still very young and, until proven otherwise, not very deep. The team will likely struggle and the time of them being perceived as the sleeper team in the West is behind them, but at least it will be good to know that Aldridge will not be out there playing alone, as it looked at times last season.
Oklahoma City Thunder: On paper, the Thunder's chances of repeating a trip to the Finals took a hit when they traded James Harden to Houston, but Jeremy Lamb as a long term investment may prove wise, the Thunder have a knack for making those calls, as Westbrook and Harden both had players projected to go before them when they were drafted by OKC. Also, let's not forget just how skilled a shoot Kevin Martin was outside of the context of last season's apparent rough patch. However, Martin likely won't get the volume of looks he did when he was in Houston as he plays third fiddle to Durant and Westbrook. If Martin gets licence to run the second unit as Harden did, Martin may pleasantly surprise. There's no question Martin doesn't fill the intangibles of defense, passing, and beard-growing that Harden did, but this is far from a one-sided trade. Health concerns circling Perry Jones resulted in him falling to OKC, if he can be healthy, he may prove the steal of the draft. Eric Maynor's return should help that second unit keep the pedal to the medal and leave opposing teams in the dust. The Thunder have one of the deepest front courts in the league with Perk, Ibaka, the under-sung Collison, and even Thabeet, who will likely play well with no offensive expectations on his shoulders. Oh yeah, then there's Durant and Westbrook who, already at the top of their profession, seem to improve every year. Bear in mind, a lot of the Thunder errors in the Finals were mental. Another year of maturity could do wonders for this squad as they undoubtedly march towards title contention.
Utah Jazz: This team looked pretty woeful by last season's end, but that had as much to do with San Antonio hitting its stride as it did the Jazz struggling. Mo Williams at point is an improvement over Devin Harris who appeared to lose all confidence in his game last season. The Jazz have one of the best starting front courts in the league in Jefferson and Milsap. Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors' continued development will shape this season's depth and perhaps, if Marvin Williams can finally meet his potential halfway, the Jazz could turn some heads. Odds are this team will again be in the awkward middleground of too good to break up, but not enough there to really compete. New found guard depth and Marvin Williams' promise at least keeps that glass half full in Salt Lake City.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Middle of the Road: Central Division Preview
The Central Division finds even its top teams in a state of transition.
Chicago Bulls: The championship hopes this team had last season were shattered in an instant when Derrick Rose drove to the basket during what some would consider garbage time of a first round victory over the Sixers and tore his ACL. While perhaps unjustly considered the underdogs in the East behind the eventual champion Miami Heat, this team was poised to make a title run of its own before Rose's untimely injury. This season, as with last season, the Bulls will only go so far as Derrick Rose can take them. Expect some ugly basketball until Rose returns, but the hard nosed attitude of head coach Tom Thibodeau should keep this team in the playoff hunt until that time. Should Rose return healthy, odds are the Bulls will be poised to make a similar run to last year, where they're overshadowed by the three kings of South Beach and itching to prove their worth come playoff time.
Last season, Luol Deng truly stepped up as a defensive force on the perimeter and second scoring option to D. Rose. Deng continuing to cement his role as the unsung Robin to Rose's Batman while Carlos Boozer does dirty work as an underrated third option could really help this team going forward. An out of shape Boozer two seasons ago combined with trying to force feed him the ball to be a part of the offense made for some rough seas in Chicago, but a more featured Luol Deng and a three point shot developed by Rose have helped the Chicago offense flow a bit more naturally and effectively.
The Bulls lost a lot of familiar faces which made up their defensively dominant bench mob. With Korver, Watson, Asik, and Brewer gone, this bench will have a whole new look to it, but the organization did a decent job filling in those holes and again, you've got to figure that the bench will take to Thibs' defensive approach quickly, as he seems to have a knack for making that attitude contagious. The increasingly integral sixth man, Taj Gibson, seems due for a breakout year to follow up his breakout year (if that makes any sense). This is a man, while not inked for the long term, who would start on many other teams and seems to be a big part of Chi-town's future. His continued growth should prove vital to the team's success as he is to the bench what Joakim Noah is to the starting lineup, an intense intangibles player who, love him or hate him, is arguably the heart and soul of that squad.
While C.J. Watson's play in Rose's stead and shadow was intensely underrated, replacing he and Mike James with Nate Robinson and the returning Kirk Hinrich is arguably an improvement. The firey Nate Robinson has a history of shooting you out of as many games as he shoots you into, but he perhaps has found the one team where that heart on your sleeve attitude is embraced and encouraged and if any coach can manage that while keeping him team oriented, it's Thibodeau. Robinson may have found the first place where he actually fits in. The loss of Brewer to the Knicks hurts, for sure, as he was one of the better bench perimeter defenders in the league, but Hinrich should fill that void to an extent and Marco Bellinelli's acquisition should not go unnoticed, as he was a nice playmaker for some pretty awful teams. His contribution in a diminished role could be just the X-factor Chicago needs, especially while Rose is out and if an aged and injury prone Rip Hamilton is underwhelming. Mohammed and the under-utilized Fesenko (formerly of Utah) will clog the middle with Noah on the bench. Vlad Radmanovic is a B-list version of Kyle Korver that could prove valuable in certain situations.
This new Chicago bench has more offensive pop than its predecessor, pop the true litmus test of the lower end of the depth chart will be how well they play defense and maintain leads. With Thibodeau at the helm that glass is likely half full.
Again, this team's success will depend on bench play and how well Derrick Rose rebounds from his ACL tear, but one thing is certain. With these new acquisitions, no longer can this team be considered the Baby Bulls. This team faces an uphill battle, but is built to win now. With perhaps an asterisk next to this season considering Rose's health, anything less than at least a Finals appearance would have to be considered a disappointment.
Cleveland Cavaliers: The rebuilding in Cleveland continues as for the foreseeable future they'll still be the team picking up the pieces after LeBron's sudden exit. An impressive rookie year by Kyrie Irving certainly expedites that process, but with that said, not much to see here. Any semblance of the team that was built for LeBron (namely Jamison) is now gone, leaving room for true rebuilding. Former Utah Jazz swingman, CJ Miles should see a more prominent role and be a nice surprise (mostly in fantasy league) and Alonzo Gee and Omri Casspi have put up some nice numbers here and there, though those numbers are likely inflated due to just how bad this team really was/is. Tristan Thompson's ability to grow with Irving could be something worth monitoring down the line, but this season will be nothing more than taking stock of young talent and a trip to the lottery in Cleveland.
Detroit Pistons: Greg Monroe alone makes this team worth watching. Easily Monroe is the future of that squad and likely the most underrated big in the league. Austin Daye, and Jason Maxiell's development appears to have stalled and Charlie V's signing appears to be the definition of a bust. Hopefully Detroit embraces this changing of the guard and stops trying to make Prince the center of that offense. The Pistons may be wise to scrap Villanueva's role and diminish Prince's and hand the keys to Mo-town over to Brandon Knight, Monroe, and Jerebko. Magette's signing may not prove so bad, should he stay healthy, but a youth movement may be more worthwhile to the franchise in the long run. This team is a while away from any sort of contention for even the playoffs, but with a new engine, they may get there sooner rather than later.
Indiana Pacers: The secret is out. The Pacers are no longer the underdog squad of the East laying in wait behind Miami and Chicago, the Pacers will now be competing at the same level as the East's elite, or at least have those expectations. Besides swapping Darren Collison for DJ Augustin, a move which will likely be a wash unless Augustin really rises to the occasion of being out of Charlotte, which is entirely possible, the Pacers haven't tinkered with much. With re-inked free agents Roy Hibbert and George Hill, the Pacers have decided to stand pat with a roster which breathed new life into an area once considered basketball's mecca. Some might say that this team may have hit their ceiling last year and are essentially the Grizzlies of the Eastern Conference as they're fun to watch and talk about, but not quite legitamate. However, last year's Pacers let their exuberance get the better of them and tried to run and gun with Miami. Would Indiana have had the veteran leadership (Danny Granger, while not a poor influence, is definitely not that leader) to pound the ball into Hibbert and West a few more times, it's a very real possibility that LeBron would still be ringless.
If the Pacers matured collectively as a result of that first real taste of playoff buzz and make the effort to be an inside out, gritty team, the sky is the limit for this bunch. Hibbert, George, Hill, and Augustin provide this team with a young core and West and Granger still in their relative primes. In addition this team is one of the more deceptively deep teams in the league.
Milwaukee Bucks: Perhaps it's time to throw in the towel on this team. For years I've tried to will this team into turning the corner, getting past being the best of the worst/worst of the best; always assuming that they're one move away from being last year's Pacers. Maybe it's just not meant to be. The fact is, the basketball that Drew Gooden is playing at this point in his career is one of the most underrated happenings in professional basketball. The fact is, Beno Udrih has a world of potential that he's yet to consistently tap. The fact is, since leaving Philly Sammy has had moments where he actually seems cognizant of what's going on on the basketball court. The fact is Mike Dunleavy impressive, but streaky, resurgence from a injury riddled career is admirable. But the real fact is, potential doesn't win basketball games and this team is as streaky and offensively challanged as they come at times.
One other giant fact is that Ersan Ilyasova is playing absolute Ilya-silly basketball can do a lot of everything on the basketball court. This man is a big market away from being a household name that your grandfather constantly mispronounces. Monta Ellis worked will with Steph Curry in a two guard system at Golden State, but much of that had to do with Curry's pass first mentality. Ellis is far from selfish, but Brandon Jennings is a player who needs the ball in his hands to have an impact (positive or negative). As a result Ellis seemed to have disappeared down the stretch of last season. Maybe Scott Skiles deserves the benefit of the doubt, as this will be his first full season with the potentially dynamic duo, but Skiles isn't exactly known for offensive creativity and things looked so bad last season, it's hard to envision and improvement. This team will have it's moments where they look like a rag tag group of untouchalbes, but they likely won't be able to string together those winning ways and will disappoint again. It's deer season, alright, and this team is going down.
Chicago Bulls: The championship hopes this team had last season were shattered in an instant when Derrick Rose drove to the basket during what some would consider garbage time of a first round victory over the Sixers and tore his ACL. While perhaps unjustly considered the underdogs in the East behind the eventual champion Miami Heat, this team was poised to make a title run of its own before Rose's untimely injury. This season, as with last season, the Bulls will only go so far as Derrick Rose can take them. Expect some ugly basketball until Rose returns, but the hard nosed attitude of head coach Tom Thibodeau should keep this team in the playoff hunt until that time. Should Rose return healthy, odds are the Bulls will be poised to make a similar run to last year, where they're overshadowed by the three kings of South Beach and itching to prove their worth come playoff time.
Last season, Luol Deng truly stepped up as a defensive force on the perimeter and second scoring option to D. Rose. Deng continuing to cement his role as the unsung Robin to Rose's Batman while Carlos Boozer does dirty work as an underrated third option could really help this team going forward. An out of shape Boozer two seasons ago combined with trying to force feed him the ball to be a part of the offense made for some rough seas in Chicago, but a more featured Luol Deng and a three point shot developed by Rose have helped the Chicago offense flow a bit more naturally and effectively.
The Bulls lost a lot of familiar faces which made up their defensively dominant bench mob. With Korver, Watson, Asik, and Brewer gone, this bench will have a whole new look to it, but the organization did a decent job filling in those holes and again, you've got to figure that the bench will take to Thibs' defensive approach quickly, as he seems to have a knack for making that attitude contagious. The increasingly integral sixth man, Taj Gibson, seems due for a breakout year to follow up his breakout year (if that makes any sense). This is a man, while not inked for the long term, who would start on many other teams and seems to be a big part of Chi-town's future. His continued growth should prove vital to the team's success as he is to the bench what Joakim Noah is to the starting lineup, an intense intangibles player who, love him or hate him, is arguably the heart and soul of that squad.
While C.J. Watson's play in Rose's stead and shadow was intensely underrated, replacing he and Mike James with Nate Robinson and the returning Kirk Hinrich is arguably an improvement. The firey Nate Robinson has a history of shooting you out of as many games as he shoots you into, but he perhaps has found the one team where that heart on your sleeve attitude is embraced and encouraged and if any coach can manage that while keeping him team oriented, it's Thibodeau. Robinson may have found the first place where he actually fits in. The loss of Brewer to the Knicks hurts, for sure, as he was one of the better bench perimeter defenders in the league, but Hinrich should fill that void to an extent and Marco Bellinelli's acquisition should not go unnoticed, as he was a nice playmaker for some pretty awful teams. His contribution in a diminished role could be just the X-factor Chicago needs, especially while Rose is out and if an aged and injury prone Rip Hamilton is underwhelming. Mohammed and the under-utilized Fesenko (formerly of Utah) will clog the middle with Noah on the bench. Vlad Radmanovic is a B-list version of Kyle Korver that could prove valuable in certain situations.
This new Chicago bench has more offensive pop than its predecessor, pop the true litmus test of the lower end of the depth chart will be how well they play defense and maintain leads. With Thibodeau at the helm that glass is likely half full.
Again, this team's success will depend on bench play and how well Derrick Rose rebounds from his ACL tear, but one thing is certain. With these new acquisitions, no longer can this team be considered the Baby Bulls. This team faces an uphill battle, but is built to win now. With perhaps an asterisk next to this season considering Rose's health, anything less than at least a Finals appearance would have to be considered a disappointment.
Cleveland Cavaliers: The rebuilding in Cleveland continues as for the foreseeable future they'll still be the team picking up the pieces after LeBron's sudden exit. An impressive rookie year by Kyrie Irving certainly expedites that process, but with that said, not much to see here. Any semblance of the team that was built for LeBron (namely Jamison) is now gone, leaving room for true rebuilding. Former Utah Jazz swingman, CJ Miles should see a more prominent role and be a nice surprise (mostly in fantasy league) and Alonzo Gee and Omri Casspi have put up some nice numbers here and there, though those numbers are likely inflated due to just how bad this team really was/is. Tristan Thompson's ability to grow with Irving could be something worth monitoring down the line, but this season will be nothing more than taking stock of young talent and a trip to the lottery in Cleveland.
Detroit Pistons: Greg Monroe alone makes this team worth watching. Easily Monroe is the future of that squad and likely the most underrated big in the league. Austin Daye, and Jason Maxiell's development appears to have stalled and Charlie V's signing appears to be the definition of a bust. Hopefully Detroit embraces this changing of the guard and stops trying to make Prince the center of that offense. The Pistons may be wise to scrap Villanueva's role and diminish Prince's and hand the keys to Mo-town over to Brandon Knight, Monroe, and Jerebko. Magette's signing may not prove so bad, should he stay healthy, but a youth movement may be more worthwhile to the franchise in the long run. This team is a while away from any sort of contention for even the playoffs, but with a new engine, they may get there sooner rather than later.
Indiana Pacers: The secret is out. The Pacers are no longer the underdog squad of the East laying in wait behind Miami and Chicago, the Pacers will now be competing at the same level as the East's elite, or at least have those expectations. Besides swapping Darren Collison for DJ Augustin, a move which will likely be a wash unless Augustin really rises to the occasion of being out of Charlotte, which is entirely possible, the Pacers haven't tinkered with much. With re-inked free agents Roy Hibbert and George Hill, the Pacers have decided to stand pat with a roster which breathed new life into an area once considered basketball's mecca. Some might say that this team may have hit their ceiling last year and are essentially the Grizzlies of the Eastern Conference as they're fun to watch and talk about, but not quite legitamate. However, last year's Pacers let their exuberance get the better of them and tried to run and gun with Miami. Would Indiana have had the veteran leadership (Danny Granger, while not a poor influence, is definitely not that leader) to pound the ball into Hibbert and West a few more times, it's a very real possibility that LeBron would still be ringless.
If the Pacers matured collectively as a result of that first real taste of playoff buzz and make the effort to be an inside out, gritty team, the sky is the limit for this bunch. Hibbert, George, Hill, and Augustin provide this team with a young core and West and Granger still in their relative primes. In addition this team is one of the more deceptively deep teams in the league.
Milwaukee Bucks: Perhaps it's time to throw in the towel on this team. For years I've tried to will this team into turning the corner, getting past being the best of the worst/worst of the best; always assuming that they're one move away from being last year's Pacers. Maybe it's just not meant to be. The fact is, the basketball that Drew Gooden is playing at this point in his career is one of the most underrated happenings in professional basketball. The fact is, Beno Udrih has a world of potential that he's yet to consistently tap. The fact is, since leaving Philly Sammy has had moments where he actually seems cognizant of what's going on on the basketball court. The fact is Mike Dunleavy impressive, but streaky, resurgence from a injury riddled career is admirable. But the real fact is, potential doesn't win basketball games and this team is as streaky and offensively challanged as they come at times.
One other giant fact is that Ersan Ilyasova is playing absolute Ilya-silly basketball can do a lot of everything on the basketball court. This man is a big market away from being a household name that your grandfather constantly mispronounces. Monta Ellis worked will with Steph Curry in a two guard system at Golden State, but much of that had to do with Curry's pass first mentality. Ellis is far from selfish, but Brandon Jennings is a player who needs the ball in his hands to have an impact (positive or negative). As a result Ellis seemed to have disappeared down the stretch of last season. Maybe Scott Skiles deserves the benefit of the doubt, as this will be his first full season with the potentially dynamic duo, but Skiles isn't exactly known for offensive creativity and things looked so bad last season, it's hard to envision and improvement. This team will have it's moments where they look like a rag tag group of untouchalbes, but they likely won't be able to string together those winning ways and will disappoint again. It's deer season, alright, and this team is going down.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Expectations, Like Most Anything, Are Bigger in Texas
Dallas Mavericks: Let's not mince words, the championship window for the Dallas Mavericks has closed as quickly as it opened and will be shut for the foreseeable future. Those title hopes were dashed as soon as the Mavs let Tyson Chandler, the very engine of our newfound defense, and J.J. Barea walk.The plan was, of course, to take advantage of Dwight Howard and Deron Williams' expiring contracts and discontent with their surroundings and swoop in armed with deep pockets and have those two join forces with Dirk to pry that window wide open again. That plan worked out about as well as Custer's last stand (doing my best with this Western theme). However, for a team that missed out on marquee free agents, lost their sixth man in Jason Terry, was filled with has-beens (Shawn Marion and Vince Carter) and never-was(es) (arguably Vince Carter), and momentarily stranded Dirk Nowitzki with the untapped potential of Roddy Beaubois, streaky Delonte West, and tough but unrefined abilities of big men Brendan Haywood and Ian Mahinmi, they've managed to turn an absolute failure of an offseason into an at the very least respectable one.
The court vision and experience of Jason Kidd will surely be missed, but Darren Collison is still a young point guard with a ton of upside who needs to improve his passing, but he can fill it up, break down defenses, and push the ball better than Kidd can at this stage in his career. Collison's addition should free up more shots for everyone on the court and a faster tempo could do wonders for this team, who looked outright stagnant at times during their first round thumping at the hands of the Thunder. Chris Kaman was an All-Star caliber center before the injury bug bit him again, and again, and again. Those injuries and poor teams have prevented Kaman from being the dark horse All Star center pick that he's capable of being. Whether or not those days are behind him, time will tell, but this guy does a lot of things well on the court and has a nice touch for a big man. In all likelihood I'm over hyping his potential at this point in his career, but I'd rather have him in the middle than the aforementioned Mahinmi and Haywood, even with the injury risk. Elton Brand doesn't exactly fit the bill of the youth movement that this team may need sooner rather than later, but I think you can't over value the fact that the Mavs will at last have a scoring power forward other than Dirk Nowitzki. Elton will be able to bang bodies when he has to and should prove to be a nice option in the half court set, buying Dirk some much needed time on the bench down the stretch of the season. Don't underestimate the value of the addition of Dahntay Jones as a perimeter defender. He should fill the void left by Deshawn Stevenson two years ago and take some of the defensive burden off of Shawn Marion. Those two on the floor together should help Dallas grind out some close games that they simply couldn't finish last year.
Dirk Nowitzki will be Dirk Nowitzki, barring a substantial injury, his production shouldn't fall off much, if at all. Yeah, Dirk's getting up there in years, but we're talking about a guy who, in his prime, was never very quick, and couldn't jump over a roll of nickels. His shooting stroke isn't going anywhere and he's no longer timid when it comes to taking and making the big shot, and absorbing contact along the way. Dirk's not superhuman, he won't be playing 45 minutes a night, but the only reason his productivity should fall off is because there's finally more than two scorers on the squad.
Perhaps the biggest wild card on the team is O.J. Mayo. Mayo was a gifted and prolific scorer at USC, but has failed to have those numbers translate consistently to the NBA. A big reason for that may be the fact that he was eclipsed by Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, ZBo, and even Mike Conley in Memphis. The Grizz never really had the necessity for Mayo to "be the man" so to speak. In filling the sneakers and high socks of Jason Terry, Mayo will have to step up. There's a chance Mayo could fill that void and then some. If Mayo has the breakout season he's capable of that championship window may not stay closed for long. The Mavs turned a garbage offseason into silver. Silver is not gold, but it's certainly valuable in it's own right. Don't sleep on this team just yet.
Houston Rockets: It's hard to feel sorry for a man making $25 million dollars based on a little over a month of work, but Jeremy Lin may just fit that bill. The Asian-American underdog that took a team on his diminutive shoulders and a nation by storm restored a floundering Knicks team to relevance now heads south to Houston with near impossible expectations to which he must live up. It seems the Rockets are suffering from temporary Linsanity and have given Lin money that the Knicks would have been foolish to match. Lin was always a little careless with the ball and was in a point guard embellishing pick and roll based system under Mike D'Antoni.Miami proved that Lin was very mortal and Lin injured himself before further evidence could be compiled to back that up. With that kind of contract, Lin is no longer the underdog no one has heard of and will now have a target on his back all season long. In addition, Lin's supporting cast consists of two promising rookies, Royce White and Jeremy Lamb, and a bunch of role players (Asik, Patterson, Parsons, Delfino). The only other star on that squad, Kevin Martin, is coming off a terrible season under Kevin McHale, so his productivity this season has to be a question mark. Odds are it's going to be a long season in Houston and it won't be Jeremy Lin's fault. At the very least, Houston should sell tickets, given the nation's fascination with Lin and the community's history of embracing Asian stars (Yao), but once they see the product on the floor, I doubt those crowds will last all four years of Lin's contract.
San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs have proven more effectively than any other team in the league, their ability to adapt in order to win. Never was that more apparent than last season when the rate of play was picked up at the expense of their once legendary defense. The Spurs proved they were more than the big three, with contributing pieces in Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and the late season acquisitions of Boris Diaw and Captain Jack. As great as the Spurs did picking up the pace and conserving Duncan's minutes, the Spurs still looked old and slow by seasons end. To an extent, that speaks volumes about the quality of the West champion Thunder, but in order for this team to make yet another run towards a title, one of the members of that bench mob, must become the integral fourth to compliment the older big three a la Rajon Rondo in Boston. Now, clearly Rajon Rondo is a special player, but the point is, a member of San Antonio's still very deep team must prepare to take the reigns from Tony, Timmy and Manu. I think this is entirely possible, given how well this bench has shown they can play. Another year to grow into themselves and each other could be just what the Spurs need to take that next step. With the Thunder still present and the newly reformed Lakers poised for a title run, it's tough to favor the Spurs. However, rest assured, they'll be making a title push of their own and it won't be strictly based on tradition.
New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets have taken the fast track to rebuilding courtesy of the draft lottery. Anthony Davis has to be the favorite for Rookie of the Year, with so many skills on both ends of the the floor. He's big and has the instincts to have an impact immediately defensively and has a variety of skills offensively that should prevent him from becoming just another name on the list of Big Bodies Big Busts. His movement in transition is truly exemplary and while indeed the NBA is not college, I'd be shocked if he wasn't a quick study on the offensive end as well. Austin Rivers is likely a bit overrated going in to his rookie season, but he has a lot of upside and appears to have the intangible "clutch gene". Vasquez played well in spurts last season, Most Improved Player Ryan Anderson will spread the floor, the forgotten Lopez should clog the paint effectively. The biggest reason for optimism in the Big Easy is the apparent healthy return of Eric Gordon, who lead the team in scoring and assists before his early exit from competition. Had Gordon played at all last year, there's no way the Hornets would have wound up looking as bad as they did. No way did they make the playoffs, but no way were they in the basement either. The Hornets are a couple years away, at least, but the pieces are there and the young Monty Williams appears to have their collective ear. The Hornets will be ready to sting again soon.
Memphis Grizzlies: Everyone's favorite Western Conference sleeper will once again try to make a run after a brutal battle with Paul, Griffin, and the Clips. The Grizz hold likely one of the best 1-5 line ups in the league, especially for a small market squad. For what it's worth, Bayless should fill the void left by Mayo and Darrell Arthur's return to action as a hustle player is huge. However, with the exception of Speights, Memphis is still not as deep as you'd like to see and while it has been far from a flop, Gay and Randolph have yet to look completely compatible on the floor. Lionel Hollins will have yet another turn with this young group. Time will tell if they can get over the hump.
The court vision and experience of Jason Kidd will surely be missed, but Darren Collison is still a young point guard with a ton of upside who needs to improve his passing, but he can fill it up, break down defenses, and push the ball better than Kidd can at this stage in his career. Collison's addition should free up more shots for everyone on the court and a faster tempo could do wonders for this team, who looked outright stagnant at times during their first round thumping at the hands of the Thunder. Chris Kaman was an All-Star caliber center before the injury bug bit him again, and again, and again. Those injuries and poor teams have prevented Kaman from being the dark horse All Star center pick that he's capable of being. Whether or not those days are behind him, time will tell, but this guy does a lot of things well on the court and has a nice touch for a big man. In all likelihood I'm over hyping his potential at this point in his career, but I'd rather have him in the middle than the aforementioned Mahinmi and Haywood, even with the injury risk. Elton Brand doesn't exactly fit the bill of the youth movement that this team may need sooner rather than later, but I think you can't over value the fact that the Mavs will at last have a scoring power forward other than Dirk Nowitzki. Elton will be able to bang bodies when he has to and should prove to be a nice option in the half court set, buying Dirk some much needed time on the bench down the stretch of the season. Don't underestimate the value of the addition of Dahntay Jones as a perimeter defender. He should fill the void left by Deshawn Stevenson two years ago and take some of the defensive burden off of Shawn Marion. Those two on the floor together should help Dallas grind out some close games that they simply couldn't finish last year.
Dirk Nowitzki will be Dirk Nowitzki, barring a substantial injury, his production shouldn't fall off much, if at all. Yeah, Dirk's getting up there in years, but we're talking about a guy who, in his prime, was never very quick, and couldn't jump over a roll of nickels. His shooting stroke isn't going anywhere and he's no longer timid when it comes to taking and making the big shot, and absorbing contact along the way. Dirk's not superhuman, he won't be playing 45 minutes a night, but the only reason his productivity should fall off is because there's finally more than two scorers on the squad.
Perhaps the biggest wild card on the team is O.J. Mayo. Mayo was a gifted and prolific scorer at USC, but has failed to have those numbers translate consistently to the NBA. A big reason for that may be the fact that he was eclipsed by Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, ZBo, and even Mike Conley in Memphis. The Grizz never really had the necessity for Mayo to "be the man" so to speak. In filling the sneakers and high socks of Jason Terry, Mayo will have to step up. There's a chance Mayo could fill that void and then some. If Mayo has the breakout season he's capable of that championship window may not stay closed for long. The Mavs turned a garbage offseason into silver. Silver is not gold, but it's certainly valuable in it's own right. Don't sleep on this team just yet.
Houston Rockets: It's hard to feel sorry for a man making $25 million dollars based on a little over a month of work, but Jeremy Lin may just fit that bill. The Asian-American underdog that took a team on his diminutive shoulders and a nation by storm restored a floundering Knicks team to relevance now heads south to Houston with near impossible expectations to which he must live up. It seems the Rockets are suffering from temporary Linsanity and have given Lin money that the Knicks would have been foolish to match. Lin was always a little careless with the ball and was in a point guard embellishing pick and roll based system under Mike D'Antoni.Miami proved that Lin was very mortal and Lin injured himself before further evidence could be compiled to back that up. With that kind of contract, Lin is no longer the underdog no one has heard of and will now have a target on his back all season long. In addition, Lin's supporting cast consists of two promising rookies, Royce White and Jeremy Lamb, and a bunch of role players (Asik, Patterson, Parsons, Delfino). The only other star on that squad, Kevin Martin, is coming off a terrible season under Kevin McHale, so his productivity this season has to be a question mark. Odds are it's going to be a long season in Houston and it won't be Jeremy Lin's fault. At the very least, Houston should sell tickets, given the nation's fascination with Lin and the community's history of embracing Asian stars (Yao), but once they see the product on the floor, I doubt those crowds will last all four years of Lin's contract.
San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs have proven more effectively than any other team in the league, their ability to adapt in order to win. Never was that more apparent than last season when the rate of play was picked up at the expense of their once legendary defense. The Spurs proved they were more than the big three, with contributing pieces in Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and the late season acquisitions of Boris Diaw and Captain Jack. As great as the Spurs did picking up the pace and conserving Duncan's minutes, the Spurs still looked old and slow by seasons end. To an extent, that speaks volumes about the quality of the West champion Thunder, but in order for this team to make yet another run towards a title, one of the members of that bench mob, must become the integral fourth to compliment the older big three a la Rajon Rondo in Boston. Now, clearly Rajon Rondo is a special player, but the point is, a member of San Antonio's still very deep team must prepare to take the reigns from Tony, Timmy and Manu. I think this is entirely possible, given how well this bench has shown they can play. Another year to grow into themselves and each other could be just what the Spurs need to take that next step. With the Thunder still present and the newly reformed Lakers poised for a title run, it's tough to favor the Spurs. However, rest assured, they'll be making a title push of their own and it won't be strictly based on tradition.
New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets have taken the fast track to rebuilding courtesy of the draft lottery. Anthony Davis has to be the favorite for Rookie of the Year, with so many skills on both ends of the the floor. He's big and has the instincts to have an impact immediately defensively and has a variety of skills offensively that should prevent him from becoming just another name on the list of Big Bodies Big Busts. His movement in transition is truly exemplary and while indeed the NBA is not college, I'd be shocked if he wasn't a quick study on the offensive end as well. Austin Rivers is likely a bit overrated going in to his rookie season, but he has a lot of upside and appears to have the intangible "clutch gene". Vasquez played well in spurts last season, Most Improved Player Ryan Anderson will spread the floor, the forgotten Lopez should clog the paint effectively. The biggest reason for optimism in the Big Easy is the apparent healthy return of Eric Gordon, who lead the team in scoring and assists before his early exit from competition. Had Gordon played at all last year, there's no way the Hornets would have wound up looking as bad as they did. No way did they make the playoffs, but no way were they in the basement either. The Hornets are a couple years away, at least, but the pieces are there and the young Monty Williams appears to have their collective ear. The Hornets will be ready to sting again soon.
Memphis Grizzlies: Everyone's favorite Western Conference sleeper will once again try to make a run after a brutal battle with Paul, Griffin, and the Clips. The Grizz hold likely one of the best 1-5 line ups in the league, especially for a small market squad. For what it's worth, Bayless should fill the void left by Mayo and Darrell Arthur's return to action as a hustle player is huge. However, with the exception of Speights, Memphis is still not as deep as you'd like to see and while it has been far from a flop, Gay and Randolph have yet to look completely compatible on the floor. Lionel Hollins will have yet another turn with this young group. Time will tell if they can get over the hump.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Pacific Specifics
A title much easier to read than say beckons me to share my thoughts on the season outlook for NBA teams in the Pacific Division.
Los Angeles Lakers: To get the obvious out of the way: The Lakers have improved a great deal this offseason and will certainly be legitimate contenders for the Larry O'Brien trophy, as they continue to prove that the draft is for squares. The one thing I will say that may raise some eyebrows is that I don't think Dwight Howard's acquisition has all that much to do with it. Dwight's an absolute talent on both ends of the floor by virtue of his size and athleticism alone. Couple those attributes with decent hook shot and work-in-progress Duncan-esque bank shot he's trying to cultivate and you have a man who's going to improve any team for which he suits up, to put it mildly. I only mean to point out that Lakers have traded, much to the euphoria of Sixer fans, the only center in the NBA whose name can justifiably be said in the same sentence as Dwight Howard in Andrew Bynum.(Unless that sentence is: Unlike Sammy Dalembert, Dwight Howard prefers to dwell in the paint.) Simply put, having a big man in the middle was never a problem in Los Angeles and I feel the Lakers' imminent success has a lot more to do with other new Lakers joining Dwight and the perennial Kobe in purple and gold.
For the record, I do think Howard is a better fit for the Lakers than Bynum was, which is saying something. Dwight runs the floor a bit better and will likely mesh more with the Princeton offense. Dwight's touches, should he be content with them, should come from boards and he should see plenty touches on pick and roll plays from a man who seems to define it for a generation; Steve Nash. Bynum likely is the better scorer at the position, but a team as suddenly deep as the Lake-show should fare just fine with Dwight down low. It's fair to at least wonder if Dwight will be reticently resistant to being the third or fourth option offensively (Kobe, Pau, Nash himself?), but winning can be the best panacea for those kinds of issues, and the Lakers will be doing a lot of that.
Steve Nash's pedigree speaks for itself, quite frankly. A genuine floor general with still some gas in the tank at the helm of a veritable all star team. After years of clawing an otherwise pretty pedestrian team into contention with some help from Amare Stoudemire, he will have more weapons than he'll know what to do with in L.A. Visions of his pick and roll with Dwight, pick and pop with Pau, and just plain playing with Kobe is hard not to salivate over. The talent around Nash alone will lighten his load and with his court vision and scoring ability in his own right, he, in turn, takes pressure off his teammates (Pau should flourish with someone getting him his shots in his spots. In addition, the Lakers still have whom I consider one of the better back up points in the league in Steve Blake.
Antawn Jamison received a measure of vindication after putting in his time as a lone vet on a rough Cavs squad. Dan Gilbert likely had high hopes of Jamison finally being the Robin that (Batman) LeBron James never had. Obviously that never came to pass. Jamison showed class in playing hard night after night and will now have the best chance of his career to capture a ring. Jordan Hill and Jodie Meeks have proven that while inconsistent, they can contribute to a team with the right guidance and much success will depend on World Peace's mindset and conditioning, but Kobe has some pieces around him that should help lighten his load and unlike the past couple of seasons, the Lakers have a true bench and point guard. Should Kobe trust his teammates enough to take some of that burden off him (and he clearly has a habit of rising to the occasion and making writers who question him look pretty foolish), he should be able to lead his new teammates down Hollywood's Redemption Road towards a championship.
Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers have once again proven that they're no longer content with being perceived as the little brothers of the Staples Center and have had a solid off season in their own right.With the acquisitions of Lamar Odom and Jamal Crawford, LOB City should prove to have more dimensions to it than highlight dunks. Blake Griffin must prove a similar point if he wishes to show that he's up to the task of being the future of this team. His hard work is evident, as he showed flashes of a fifteen foot jumper and some post moves, but as of this writing he's still very much the raw, hard working, super athlete who jumped over a car and turned "Mozgov" into a verb, rather than a basketball player. Griffin has yet to even approach his ceiling and potential as a player, so don't read into this as too harsh of a critique, but there's no denying that his game has yet to reach the level of his vertical leap.
Blake Griffin did his part in turning Clipper culture from miserable to hopeful and Chris Paul turned hopeful into prideful. Chris Paul has led by example and injected toughness and winning expectations into a once lost franchise. Never was this never-say-die attitude more evident than during the Clips' unprecedented Game 1 comeback against the Grizzlies this past postseason. The new chip-on-our-shoulder attitude seems to run deep as they appear to have a roster filled with blue collar bad boys (using that term loosely) Matt Barnes, DeAndre Jordan, Caron Butler, and potentially Kenyon Martin to help continue the mental makeover. Grant Hill and Billups' veteran leadership should work wonders with the youth in the lockeroom, and time will tell just much those two can contribute on the floor.
Crawford should fill the scoring void left by Nick Young's absence exceptionally and you'd have to believe that Lamar Odom can only improve upon a failed season in Dallas as he once again calls Los Angeles home. You can't overstate the importance of the role Mo Williams played as the unsung backup last season. His absence puts more pressure on Billups to be healthy, Bledsoe to develop, and Crawford to run an offense when CP3 is catching a rare blow. Other than that I see the Clips team that appears to be growing into itself right on schedule and will look to advance at least one round deeper into the playoffs this time around.
Golden State Warriors: With the movement of Monta Ellis and Dorell Wright, the final remnants of Nellie ball appear to be behind us. The true Mark Jackson era has officially begun in Oakland, and as expected there's a lot of impetus on molding youth from scratch. The status of this team is a relative question mark because, quite frankly, so many of these players are largely unknown. Brandon Rush, Jarrett Jack, and Charles Jenkins have performed nicely in complimentary roles, but more will surely be asked of them this season on this team than there ever has been before. Klay Thompson will look to build off a solid season while Carl Landry will seek to prove that his issues with Monty Williams were an isolated incident and he's ready to commit to playing hard on both ends of the court. The Warriors have high hopes for Harrison Barnes and his ability to do a little bit of everything on the floor and there's a tremendous cast of vets to guide him along the way.
David Lee is a double double machine and Richard Jefferson is another jack of all trades type that any team would love to have. The major concerns surrounding this team has to do with the fact that they seem to have invested a lot of their potential in some very injury prone guys. When healthy, Andrew Bogut is as good as any center in the league. I realize the implications of that statement and stick by it. Andris Biedrins is a nice reserve big man and looked like a future all star when the Warriors were thumping the top seeded Mavs in 2007 (the last time he was healthy), but he hasn't been the same since. In addition, the man worthy of being the face of this franchise, Steph Curry, is always one ankle tweak away from sitting out half the season. Couple these rather ominous "what ifs" with the fact that we're not entirely sure how Mark Jackson will use all of these pieces even if he has them all at his disposal and we're left with yet another rebuilding season for the Warriors, with flashes of brilliance and high hopes for next year. Here's hoping that they stay healthy enough for the outlook to be that bright.
Sacramento Kings: On paper, these guys don't look half bad. A lot of young up and comers with nothing but upside ready to ruffle some feathers amongst the West's elite. The only problem is, this game isn't played on paper, and on the basketball court this team has a lot of issues. The ebb and flow of DeMarcus Cousins' maturity aside, this team is full of players who need the ball to be successful and no one who wants to share it. This team had all but tuned out Paul Westphal, so there's something to be said for Keith Smart having his first full season as head coach, but there's a real log jam of score first guards on that team which the addition of Aaron Brooks doesn't help and Thomas Robinson walks into a program where the inside touches will likely be made by Cousins and Jason Thompson. The bottom line is that a lineup of Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, Aaron Brooks, and Marcus Thornton looks great on a fantasy team, but likely won't translate to real wins in the competitive West.
Phoenix Suns: If you'll excuse the obvious word play, as one sun sets another one rises. Steve Nash leaves the Valley of the Sun, but Alvin Gentry and management have done a tremendous job of ensuring that this team won't quietly fade off into the... well you get the idea. Former reserve Goran Dragic returns to Phoenix after cutting his teeth in Houston and after excelling in Houston, should be able to acclimate well to being the point man in Phoenix. The Suns have shown they have no real intentions of slowing the pace of play by signing swing man forward, Michael Beasley, who should rebound from an off year in Minnesota within a less stringent offense. For a time, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat seemed to be the lone bright spots in Phoenix (excluding Nash, of course) they should continue to perform. I'm sure the Suns would prefer to have Eric Gordon rather than Shannon Brown in their back court, but the potential for Telfair, Wes Johnson, and Shannon Brown to improve is present and worth mentioning. The signings of Scola and O'Neal are eyebrow raising, and you have to wonder if they can keep up with the rate of play. I think you have to wonder if Jermaine O'Neal has anything to give period, quite frankly. Scola struggled last season under McHale and failed to contribute consistently in any facet of the game. You have to wonder how he'll fare under Gentry. Maybe the organization sees him a safety valve in half court sets, a la Elton Brand in his first years in Philly, but we all know how that looked for a while there. The post Steve Nash era will have it's rough spots, but it's definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Los Angeles Lakers: To get the obvious out of the way: The Lakers have improved a great deal this offseason and will certainly be legitimate contenders for the Larry O'Brien trophy, as they continue to prove that the draft is for squares. The one thing I will say that may raise some eyebrows is that I don't think Dwight Howard's acquisition has all that much to do with it. Dwight's an absolute talent on both ends of the floor by virtue of his size and athleticism alone. Couple those attributes with decent hook shot and work-in-progress Duncan-esque bank shot he's trying to cultivate and you have a man who's going to improve any team for which he suits up, to put it mildly. I only mean to point out that Lakers have traded, much to the euphoria of Sixer fans, the only center in the NBA whose name can justifiably be said in the same sentence as Dwight Howard in Andrew Bynum.(Unless that sentence is: Unlike Sammy Dalembert, Dwight Howard prefers to dwell in the paint.) Simply put, having a big man in the middle was never a problem in Los Angeles and I feel the Lakers' imminent success has a lot more to do with other new Lakers joining Dwight and the perennial Kobe in purple and gold.
For the record, I do think Howard is a better fit for the Lakers than Bynum was, which is saying something. Dwight runs the floor a bit better and will likely mesh more with the Princeton offense. Dwight's touches, should he be content with them, should come from boards and he should see plenty touches on pick and roll plays from a man who seems to define it for a generation; Steve Nash. Bynum likely is the better scorer at the position, but a team as suddenly deep as the Lake-show should fare just fine with Dwight down low. It's fair to at least wonder if Dwight will be reticently resistant to being the third or fourth option offensively (Kobe, Pau, Nash himself?), but winning can be the best panacea for those kinds of issues, and the Lakers will be doing a lot of that.
Steve Nash's pedigree speaks for itself, quite frankly. A genuine floor general with still some gas in the tank at the helm of a veritable all star team. After years of clawing an otherwise pretty pedestrian team into contention with some help from Amare Stoudemire, he will have more weapons than he'll know what to do with in L.A. Visions of his pick and roll with Dwight, pick and pop with Pau, and just plain playing with Kobe is hard not to salivate over. The talent around Nash alone will lighten his load and with his court vision and scoring ability in his own right, he, in turn, takes pressure off his teammates (Pau should flourish with someone getting him his shots in his spots. In addition, the Lakers still have whom I consider one of the better back up points in the league in Steve Blake.
Antawn Jamison received a measure of vindication after putting in his time as a lone vet on a rough Cavs squad. Dan Gilbert likely had high hopes of Jamison finally being the Robin that (Batman) LeBron James never had. Obviously that never came to pass. Jamison showed class in playing hard night after night and will now have the best chance of his career to capture a ring. Jordan Hill and Jodie Meeks have proven that while inconsistent, they can contribute to a team with the right guidance and much success will depend on World Peace's mindset and conditioning, but Kobe has some pieces around him that should help lighten his load and unlike the past couple of seasons, the Lakers have a true bench and point guard. Should Kobe trust his teammates enough to take some of that burden off him (and he clearly has a habit of rising to the occasion and making writers who question him look pretty foolish), he should be able to lead his new teammates down Hollywood's Redemption Road towards a championship.
Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers have once again proven that they're no longer content with being perceived as the little brothers of the Staples Center and have had a solid off season in their own right.With the acquisitions of Lamar Odom and Jamal Crawford, LOB City should prove to have more dimensions to it than highlight dunks. Blake Griffin must prove a similar point if he wishes to show that he's up to the task of being the future of this team. His hard work is evident, as he showed flashes of a fifteen foot jumper and some post moves, but as of this writing he's still very much the raw, hard working, super athlete who jumped over a car and turned "Mozgov" into a verb, rather than a basketball player. Griffin has yet to even approach his ceiling and potential as a player, so don't read into this as too harsh of a critique, but there's no denying that his game has yet to reach the level of his vertical leap.
Blake Griffin did his part in turning Clipper culture from miserable to hopeful and Chris Paul turned hopeful into prideful. Chris Paul has led by example and injected toughness and winning expectations into a once lost franchise. Never was this never-say-die attitude more evident than during the Clips' unprecedented Game 1 comeback against the Grizzlies this past postseason. The new chip-on-our-shoulder attitude seems to run deep as they appear to have a roster filled with blue collar bad boys (using that term loosely) Matt Barnes, DeAndre Jordan, Caron Butler, and potentially Kenyon Martin to help continue the mental makeover. Grant Hill and Billups' veteran leadership should work wonders with the youth in the lockeroom, and time will tell just much those two can contribute on the floor.
Crawford should fill the scoring void left by Nick Young's absence exceptionally and you'd have to believe that Lamar Odom can only improve upon a failed season in Dallas as he once again calls Los Angeles home. You can't overstate the importance of the role Mo Williams played as the unsung backup last season. His absence puts more pressure on Billups to be healthy, Bledsoe to develop, and Crawford to run an offense when CP3 is catching a rare blow. Other than that I see the Clips team that appears to be growing into itself right on schedule and will look to advance at least one round deeper into the playoffs this time around.
Golden State Warriors: With the movement of Monta Ellis and Dorell Wright, the final remnants of Nellie ball appear to be behind us. The true Mark Jackson era has officially begun in Oakland, and as expected there's a lot of impetus on molding youth from scratch. The status of this team is a relative question mark because, quite frankly, so many of these players are largely unknown. Brandon Rush, Jarrett Jack, and Charles Jenkins have performed nicely in complimentary roles, but more will surely be asked of them this season on this team than there ever has been before. Klay Thompson will look to build off a solid season while Carl Landry will seek to prove that his issues with Monty Williams were an isolated incident and he's ready to commit to playing hard on both ends of the court. The Warriors have high hopes for Harrison Barnes and his ability to do a little bit of everything on the floor and there's a tremendous cast of vets to guide him along the way.
David Lee is a double double machine and Richard Jefferson is another jack of all trades type that any team would love to have. The major concerns surrounding this team has to do with the fact that they seem to have invested a lot of their potential in some very injury prone guys. When healthy, Andrew Bogut is as good as any center in the league. I realize the implications of that statement and stick by it. Andris Biedrins is a nice reserve big man and looked like a future all star when the Warriors were thumping the top seeded Mavs in 2007 (the last time he was healthy), but he hasn't been the same since. In addition, the man worthy of being the face of this franchise, Steph Curry, is always one ankle tweak away from sitting out half the season. Couple these rather ominous "what ifs" with the fact that we're not entirely sure how Mark Jackson will use all of these pieces even if he has them all at his disposal and we're left with yet another rebuilding season for the Warriors, with flashes of brilliance and high hopes for next year. Here's hoping that they stay healthy enough for the outlook to be that bright.
Sacramento Kings: On paper, these guys don't look half bad. A lot of young up and comers with nothing but upside ready to ruffle some feathers amongst the West's elite. The only problem is, this game isn't played on paper, and on the basketball court this team has a lot of issues. The ebb and flow of DeMarcus Cousins' maturity aside, this team is full of players who need the ball to be successful and no one who wants to share it. This team had all but tuned out Paul Westphal, so there's something to be said for Keith Smart having his first full season as head coach, but there's a real log jam of score first guards on that team which the addition of Aaron Brooks doesn't help and Thomas Robinson walks into a program where the inside touches will likely be made by Cousins and Jason Thompson. The bottom line is that a lineup of Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, Aaron Brooks, and Marcus Thornton looks great on a fantasy team, but likely won't translate to real wins in the competitive West.
Phoenix Suns: If you'll excuse the obvious word play, as one sun sets another one rises. Steve Nash leaves the Valley of the Sun, but Alvin Gentry and management have done a tremendous job of ensuring that this team won't quietly fade off into the... well you get the idea. Former reserve Goran Dragic returns to Phoenix after cutting his teeth in Houston and after excelling in Houston, should be able to acclimate well to being the point man in Phoenix. The Suns have shown they have no real intentions of slowing the pace of play by signing swing man forward, Michael Beasley, who should rebound from an off year in Minnesota within a less stringent offense. For a time, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat seemed to be the lone bright spots in Phoenix (excluding Nash, of course) they should continue to perform. I'm sure the Suns would prefer to have Eric Gordon rather than Shannon Brown in their back court, but the potential for Telfair, Wes Johnson, and Shannon Brown to improve is present and worth mentioning. The signings of Scola and O'Neal are eyebrow raising, and you have to wonder if they can keep up with the rate of play. I think you have to wonder if Jermaine O'Neal has anything to give period, quite frankly. Scola struggled last season under McHale and failed to contribute consistently in any facet of the game. You have to wonder how he'll fare under Gentry. Maybe the organization sees him a safety valve in half court sets, a la Elton Brand in his first years in Philly, but we all know how that looked for a while there. The post Steve Nash era will have it's rough spots, but it's definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Free Agency Retrospective: Atlantic Division
With the dust finally settling after Dwight Howard's monumental and long drawn out move to Los Angeles, it is at last safe to look back on the madness that was this summer's free agency period and speculate how teams will stack up this coming season. Being that I'm likely as biased as the rest of you Philly readers, I'll be starting with the Atlantic Division.
Boston Celtics: Here is a team that in my opinion really exemplified the phrase "addition by subtraction". I mean, it's hard to be thrilled that a class act and first ballot Hall of Famer, Ray Allen, has decided to join forces with Boston's equivalent of the Legion of Doom, but bear in mind the Celtics have filled that void nicely with Jason Terry, a man with his own championship credentials. Is Jason Terry really comparable to Ray Allen? Arguably, at this point this point in their careers I think a case can be made. Even if you find that hard to believe, there's no denying that Terry in tandem with a healthy Avery Bradley and even Courtney Lee certainly softens the blow of losing a member of Boston's once mighty Big Three. Paul Pierce still has some game left in him for sure. He's never been an incredibly explosive player and provided he can keep his aches and pains under control, I see no reason why he can't continue to play at a high level for the next season or two. Kevin Garnett is a much bigger question mark. It's almost a shame to see a once so dynamic player become a glorified pick and pop player, but his basketball IQ is almost as big as his mouth and he should still be able to be a defensive factor in spurts. The good news for the Cs is that finally they have some size that will take some pressure off of KG at both ends of the floor. Fab and Sully are raw talents, but they quite simply have the size to plug up the paint that the Celtics haven't had since the hobbled and aged bodies of the not-quite-brothers O'Neal (who played about 10 games a piece). Jeff Green's underrated return and another year in green for LSU's Brandon Bass should give the Celtic frontcourt a nice boost. The bottom line is that the Celtics will have a formidable bench for the first time since their title run in 2008, Doc Rivers' coaching speaks for itself, and defying all rational thought, Rajon Rondo seems to improve every season. We're referring to a Boston team that was as banged up of a playoff team I've ever seen and pushed the eventual champion Heat to 7 games. There's something to be said for Boston's success and the absence of Chris Bosh not being coincidental, but nonetheless the Celtics are an old automobile looking as shiny and new as they have in years. Rest assured, they're going to be deep in the hunt for at least one more title with Pierce and Garnett at the helm.
Toronto Raptors: Dwayne Casey's ability to somewhat implement Dallas' championship defense in a place where defense was once considered a lost cause is proof enough that the Raptors are headed in the right direction. However, even though the direction is a solid one, it's still going to be slow going and an uphill battle in Canada to see this team have any real success. Kyle Lowry's signing is a bit overlooked coming off his breakout season with Houston despite butting heads with Kevin McHale and/or management. Every other acquisition is likely a little overrated. Better to have Jonas Valanciunas cutting his teeth in NBA arenas rather than overseas, but you likely won't see a true return on that for another couple years. Landry Fields is a player who busts his butt and can contribute some intangables, but he had a habit of disappearing or forcing plays in New York. Odds are the Raptors over paid for him when they tried to make New York decide between keeping him and pursuing Nash, but Landry has the upside to make me eat crow and I wouldn't mind if it means his continued success. The lone bright spot in Toronto has been the subtle blossoming of DeMar DeRozan, who has carved out a solid little niche for himself there. Hopefully the injection of new talent doesn't hinder that growth. Andrea Bargnani's health is, of course, always of great concern and question as well. At the very least, we should begin to see flashes of what the big picture looks like in Toronto and those growing pains have the potential to be painful, but fun to watch.
New York Knicks: The Knicks have raided the near-retirement ward of the NBA and carved out a decent bench for themselves. Camby, Thomas and Kidd and reduced roles should flourish and round out the bench nicely; giving the Knicks a paint presence they haven't had since, well... Marcus Camby and Kurt Thomas. Obviously, they have should-be Defensive Player of the Year, Tyson Chandler, but I couldn't resist the nod to those centers' younger days in blue and orange. For the first time in some time, the Knicks have not overpaid for players, wisely letting Lin and Fields walk and replacing them with Felton (we'll see) and Ronnie Brewer (brilliant signing for the price). All is not blue skies in New York, however. Felton is coming off a woeful season in Portland, perhaps proving once and for all that Mike D'Antoni's run and gun system will embellish any point guard's skill set. Regardless, you couldn't justify giving Lin that kind of money and/or expect Jason Kidd to log heavy minutes. Felton appears to be saying the right things and is poised for a "comeback" of sorts. Time will tell, but the Knicks made the move they had to make regardless. The jury is still out as to whether Carmelo can mold his game to blend with... anybody, but his performance in the Olympics was almost poetic and he's shown that he can play and win with pieces around him. I feel pretty safe in saying that Amare is somewhat of a bust with no knees or basketball skills to speak of as a result, but bear in mind that if the Knicks wound up with no prize free agent two summers ago, Donnie Walsh would have made Isiah Thomas and Eddy Curry look beloved in the Big Apple. Stoudemire's days of bulldozing through and over people appear to be more or less behind him and while his jumper has improved, it doesn't justify his paycheck. He did train with Hakeem this offseason, and the last person who did that won a title. The Knicks almost certainly won't, but maybe Amare has learned some tricks that will prove to make himself and his team better this season. The bottom line is that the Knicks have both improved and been wise with money this offseason. Their improvement likely won't translate to more than yet another first round bounce, but I respect the Knicks for making the best of the bed they've made. My one true gripe is why the heck was J.R. Smith re-signed and why did he bring his brother with him?
Brooklyn Nets: Simply put, a team lined up to be the most improved team in the league. The Joe Johnson acquisition is a bit overrated, especially with a budding MarShon Brooks still on the roster, but the fact that they didn't have to give up much to get him may make his signing the biggest steal of the season. Deron Williams is more than appeased and has some real tools to work with this season, including the re-signed Gerald Wallace and bounding machine Kris Humphries. Joe Johnson resurrects an almost lost mid-range game in the NBA, Brook Lopez, once arguably the second best center in the Eastern Conference, will be healthy and has promised to be more active on the glass, and again, the aforementioned Brooks has no ceiling in sight. Bogans will be a great perimeter defender for the squad. CJ Watson was more than an adequate backup for the injury riddled Derrick Rose in Chicago last season and should do more of the same filling the sneakers of Williams. This is indeed and whole new squad and the impetus is on Avery Johnson now to be up to the task for what will now be championship aspirations. I don't know about you, but I think this squad looks a lot better to me than a gutted roster resulting in Williams, Dwight Howard, and a bunch of miscellaneous players. The power may have shifted in New York before a game has even been played in the lavish Barclay Center.
Philadelphia Sixers: The Kwame Brown Era was over before it even had the chance to begin, as there's a new big man in town. Andrew Bynum's arrival comes at the expense of the departure of often criticized swingman, Andre Iguodala. I gather that the mood in Philly is mostly that of great merriment, and I share their levity. It's refreshing to have a true new day in Sixer basketball and have Iggy's huge ego replaced with huge expectations. Iggy's departure is somewhat bittersweet, considering he was coming off two of his best seasons under Doug Collins, but largely the team was going to be stuck in limbo until a change of this magnitude occurred. The Sixers inherit a seven footer who has nothing but upside and seems to be thrilled to be embraced by the "brotherly love". Bynum has had his own maturity issues, most notably and recently with Laker coach, Mike Brown, but the way I see it, a change in scenery can be the best medicine for an unhappy player and if Doug Collins can turn Iggy from a shot taker into a playmaker, I don't doubt he can continue his horse whispering ways with the young Bynum. Collins really does seem to have an intangible ability to get through to young players and I couldn't be more excited to see where he can lead this team this coming season. Holiday continues to blossom, seemingly by the game, and I think Turner's solid performance in last year's playoffs is telling of a breakout year to come. With Iggy gone and a more defined role with the team, he'll likely finally have the room to grow into a player worthy of being the second pick of the draft. The Sixers seem to molded in the image of the former Finals contending Magic squad, with shooters (Young, Richardson, Holiday) surrounding the dominant center piece. The Sixers have more talent on paper than that team ever did, with the versatile Spencer Hawes and Thad Young rounding out the rotation. Lavoy Allen was a stud as far as rookies go last season and he should continue to grow under Collins' wing. Quite simply this team has a whole new look that should translate to much improvement and debatable contention in the coming years, should Andrew Bynum's health hold up and, of course, he re-signs. You have every reason to be excited and the conference and league should be on the lookout for the young and growing Sixers.
Boston Celtics: Here is a team that in my opinion really exemplified the phrase "addition by subtraction". I mean, it's hard to be thrilled that a class act and first ballot Hall of Famer, Ray Allen, has decided to join forces with Boston's equivalent of the Legion of Doom, but bear in mind the Celtics have filled that void nicely with Jason Terry, a man with his own championship credentials. Is Jason Terry really comparable to Ray Allen? Arguably, at this point this point in their careers I think a case can be made. Even if you find that hard to believe, there's no denying that Terry in tandem with a healthy Avery Bradley and even Courtney Lee certainly softens the blow of losing a member of Boston's once mighty Big Three. Paul Pierce still has some game left in him for sure. He's never been an incredibly explosive player and provided he can keep his aches and pains under control, I see no reason why he can't continue to play at a high level for the next season or two. Kevin Garnett is a much bigger question mark. It's almost a shame to see a once so dynamic player become a glorified pick and pop player, but his basketball IQ is almost as big as his mouth and he should still be able to be a defensive factor in spurts. The good news for the Cs is that finally they have some size that will take some pressure off of KG at both ends of the floor. Fab and Sully are raw talents, but they quite simply have the size to plug up the paint that the Celtics haven't had since the hobbled and aged bodies of the not-quite-brothers O'Neal (who played about 10 games a piece). Jeff Green's underrated return and another year in green for LSU's Brandon Bass should give the Celtic frontcourt a nice boost. The bottom line is that the Celtics will have a formidable bench for the first time since their title run in 2008, Doc Rivers' coaching speaks for itself, and defying all rational thought, Rajon Rondo seems to improve every season. We're referring to a Boston team that was as banged up of a playoff team I've ever seen and pushed the eventual champion Heat to 7 games. There's something to be said for Boston's success and the absence of Chris Bosh not being coincidental, but nonetheless the Celtics are an old automobile looking as shiny and new as they have in years. Rest assured, they're going to be deep in the hunt for at least one more title with Pierce and Garnett at the helm.
Toronto Raptors: Dwayne Casey's ability to somewhat implement Dallas' championship defense in a place where defense was once considered a lost cause is proof enough that the Raptors are headed in the right direction. However, even though the direction is a solid one, it's still going to be slow going and an uphill battle in Canada to see this team have any real success. Kyle Lowry's signing is a bit overlooked coming off his breakout season with Houston despite butting heads with Kevin McHale and/or management. Every other acquisition is likely a little overrated. Better to have Jonas Valanciunas cutting his teeth in NBA arenas rather than overseas, but you likely won't see a true return on that for another couple years. Landry Fields is a player who busts his butt and can contribute some intangables, but he had a habit of disappearing or forcing plays in New York. Odds are the Raptors over paid for him when they tried to make New York decide between keeping him and pursuing Nash, but Landry has the upside to make me eat crow and I wouldn't mind if it means his continued success. The lone bright spot in Toronto has been the subtle blossoming of DeMar DeRozan, who has carved out a solid little niche for himself there. Hopefully the injection of new talent doesn't hinder that growth. Andrea Bargnani's health is, of course, always of great concern and question as well. At the very least, we should begin to see flashes of what the big picture looks like in Toronto and those growing pains have the potential to be painful, but fun to watch.
New York Knicks: The Knicks have raided the near-retirement ward of the NBA and carved out a decent bench for themselves. Camby, Thomas and Kidd and reduced roles should flourish and round out the bench nicely; giving the Knicks a paint presence they haven't had since, well... Marcus Camby and Kurt Thomas. Obviously, they have should-be Defensive Player of the Year, Tyson Chandler, but I couldn't resist the nod to those centers' younger days in blue and orange. For the first time in some time, the Knicks have not overpaid for players, wisely letting Lin and Fields walk and replacing them with Felton (we'll see) and Ronnie Brewer (brilliant signing for the price). All is not blue skies in New York, however. Felton is coming off a woeful season in Portland, perhaps proving once and for all that Mike D'Antoni's run and gun system will embellish any point guard's skill set. Regardless, you couldn't justify giving Lin that kind of money and/or expect Jason Kidd to log heavy minutes. Felton appears to be saying the right things and is poised for a "comeback" of sorts. Time will tell, but the Knicks made the move they had to make regardless. The jury is still out as to whether Carmelo can mold his game to blend with... anybody, but his performance in the Olympics was almost poetic and he's shown that he can play and win with pieces around him. I feel pretty safe in saying that Amare is somewhat of a bust with no knees or basketball skills to speak of as a result, but bear in mind that if the Knicks wound up with no prize free agent two summers ago, Donnie Walsh would have made Isiah Thomas and Eddy Curry look beloved in the Big Apple. Stoudemire's days of bulldozing through and over people appear to be more or less behind him and while his jumper has improved, it doesn't justify his paycheck. He did train with Hakeem this offseason, and the last person who did that won a title. The Knicks almost certainly won't, but maybe Amare has learned some tricks that will prove to make himself and his team better this season. The bottom line is that the Knicks have both improved and been wise with money this offseason. Their improvement likely won't translate to more than yet another first round bounce, but I respect the Knicks for making the best of the bed they've made. My one true gripe is why the heck was J.R. Smith re-signed and why did he bring his brother with him?
Brooklyn Nets: Simply put, a team lined up to be the most improved team in the league. The Joe Johnson acquisition is a bit overrated, especially with a budding MarShon Brooks still on the roster, but the fact that they didn't have to give up much to get him may make his signing the biggest steal of the season. Deron Williams is more than appeased and has some real tools to work with this season, including the re-signed Gerald Wallace and bounding machine Kris Humphries. Joe Johnson resurrects an almost lost mid-range game in the NBA, Brook Lopez, once arguably the second best center in the Eastern Conference, will be healthy and has promised to be more active on the glass, and again, the aforementioned Brooks has no ceiling in sight. Bogans will be a great perimeter defender for the squad. CJ Watson was more than an adequate backup for the injury riddled Derrick Rose in Chicago last season and should do more of the same filling the sneakers of Williams. This is indeed and whole new squad and the impetus is on Avery Johnson now to be up to the task for what will now be championship aspirations. I don't know about you, but I think this squad looks a lot better to me than a gutted roster resulting in Williams, Dwight Howard, and a bunch of miscellaneous players. The power may have shifted in New York before a game has even been played in the lavish Barclay Center.
Philadelphia Sixers: The Kwame Brown Era was over before it even had the chance to begin, as there's a new big man in town. Andrew Bynum's arrival comes at the expense of the departure of often criticized swingman, Andre Iguodala. I gather that the mood in Philly is mostly that of great merriment, and I share their levity. It's refreshing to have a true new day in Sixer basketball and have Iggy's huge ego replaced with huge expectations. Iggy's departure is somewhat bittersweet, considering he was coming off two of his best seasons under Doug Collins, but largely the team was going to be stuck in limbo until a change of this magnitude occurred. The Sixers inherit a seven footer who has nothing but upside and seems to be thrilled to be embraced by the "brotherly love". Bynum has had his own maturity issues, most notably and recently with Laker coach, Mike Brown, but the way I see it, a change in scenery can be the best medicine for an unhappy player and if Doug Collins can turn Iggy from a shot taker into a playmaker, I don't doubt he can continue his horse whispering ways with the young Bynum. Collins really does seem to have an intangible ability to get through to young players and I couldn't be more excited to see where he can lead this team this coming season. Holiday continues to blossom, seemingly by the game, and I think Turner's solid performance in last year's playoffs is telling of a breakout year to come. With Iggy gone and a more defined role with the team, he'll likely finally have the room to grow into a player worthy of being the second pick of the draft. The Sixers seem to molded in the image of the former Finals contending Magic squad, with shooters (Young, Richardson, Holiday) surrounding the dominant center piece. The Sixers have more talent on paper than that team ever did, with the versatile Spencer Hawes and Thad Young rounding out the rotation. Lavoy Allen was a stud as far as rookies go last season and he should continue to grow under Collins' wing. Quite simply this team has a whole new look that should translate to much improvement and debatable contention in the coming years, should Andrew Bynum's health hold up and, of course, he re-signs. You have every reason to be excited and the conference and league should be on the lookout for the young and growing Sixers.
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Heat Lightning
The NBA Finals are finally upon us and, as many expected during this condensed season, youth has risen to the top. In a battle of elemental fundamentals, the much scrutinized Miami Heat will have their second shot at raising a banner in the East, while the ever-maturing and largely adored Oklahoma City Thunder will represent the West and attempt to realize their potential just 3 short seasons into the OKC era, leaving the city of Seattle to look on with mixed feelings.
Neither team got to the Finals without first weathering the last stand of a couple of the league's elder statesman in Boston and San Antonio, but this is arguably the first time during this post-season where Miami and OKC playing a team built to run the floor with them. This should make for a series that could, at times resemble a track meet more than a basketball game and makes for some interesting matchups on both ends of the floor.
The most intriguing matchup by far will pit everyone's favorite second pick of a draft, Kevin Durant, *shakes head at Portland* against the world's most reviled first pick, LeBron James. I'm curious how often these two will actually be guarding each other. With all respect to Shane Battier, I'm hard pressed to find a player more capable of at least making Durant work for his points than LeBron James. Kevin Durant's game seems to become more well-rounded by the season and this year he's really been rising to the challenge defensively, making the effort to check the league's elite. I doubt very much Scott Brooks will have Durant guard LeBron for any extended period of time, as Harden will likely draw Wade and Sefolosha the daunting task of James, but down the stretch it would surprise me if Durant requests to guard James and, as LeBron struggles to do late it games, rises to the challenge.
Now, for all the flack that LeBron James takes for his inability to make (or even take) clutch shots late in games, let's not forget whom we're talking about here. I dislike the guy as much as the next sports fan with a pulse and a television, but he makes the term "beast mode" almost seem appropriate for use in sports journalism. The luxury of LeBron is his ability to be so dominant in games that the final minutes aren't important. As if it was in doubt, LeBron's performance in Boston proved that he's more than prepared to step up in big game situations, but he's yet to prove that he's up for the big moment.
Dwayne Wade has proven himself capable of brilliance time and time again, James Harden is OKC's most well-rounded (not best) player, and Westbrook is showing naysayers that his shoot-first-have-it out-with-KD-later point guard philosophy can be successful, but I think the most compelling matchup in the finals well be the Bosh/Ibaka matchup. As fun as it can be to mock Chris Bosh's emotional, don't-dive-because-you-might-hurt-me attitude, he's an invaluable cog in the Miami offense as their only post and mid-range scorer who compliments James and Wade perfectly. His ability to step out, board, and straight up make teams pay for over helping makes him Miami's X Factor in my opinion. What's scary is that he seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder for the first time in his career. Look out, he's not just happy to be there anymore.
Serge Ibaka makes for some of the most highlight worthy defensive plays in the NBA, on top of that he's really perfected a mid-range jumper that, during the Laker series, made Bynum and Pau look like second fiddles to the Perk-Ibaka tandem in the post. Given Miami's lack of interior scoring, look for OKC to go small again as they did in San Antonio. His ability to check Bosh, patrol the paint, and hit open jumpers could pay championship dividends.
For all their differences in personel, these teams are built to win in a pretty similar, fast-paced, fashion. Neither team is especially deep, with a roster centered around three scorers and a bunch of blue collar guys who know their respective roles, and this series could go either way and will be hotly contested. With that said, I give a slight, but distinct edge to the Thunder heading into the series. With the exception of Battier's performance in game 7 of the conference finals, I've yet to see any of Miami's gunners step up and consistently hit the shots afforded them by James and Wade's penetration. I will say that Mario Chalmers' play has been drasticly undervalued and he may be due for a coming out party similar to Jeff Teague's rise to relavance against D. Rose last season, but as I mentioned before, Miami is facing a mirror image of themselves in the athleticism department. As a result, if this series becomes essentially a battle of "Big Threes" OKC's trio compliments each other a little better than the three amigos of South Beach.
On the OKC end, I think the Thunder learned a lot real quick from the Spurs about how to play as a team and share the ball. To take such a shot to the mouth from San Antonio (with emphasis on game 2) and recover so quickly and thoroughly is a testament to that team's character and coaching. I kind of feel like the Thunder said "if you can't beat them, join them" and their more unified offense makes them a scary team that I feel has one or two more dimensions than Miami that may prove to be the difference.
Neither team got to the Finals without first weathering the last stand of a couple of the league's elder statesman in Boston and San Antonio, but this is arguably the first time during this post-season where Miami and OKC playing a team built to run the floor with them. This should make for a series that could, at times resemble a track meet more than a basketball game and makes for some interesting matchups on both ends of the floor.
The most intriguing matchup by far will pit everyone's favorite second pick of a draft, Kevin Durant, *shakes head at Portland* against the world's most reviled first pick, LeBron James. I'm curious how often these two will actually be guarding each other. With all respect to Shane Battier, I'm hard pressed to find a player more capable of at least making Durant work for his points than LeBron James. Kevin Durant's game seems to become more well-rounded by the season and this year he's really been rising to the challenge defensively, making the effort to check the league's elite. I doubt very much Scott Brooks will have Durant guard LeBron for any extended period of time, as Harden will likely draw Wade and Sefolosha the daunting task of James, but down the stretch it would surprise me if Durant requests to guard James and, as LeBron struggles to do late it games, rises to the challenge.
Now, for all the flack that LeBron James takes for his inability to make (or even take) clutch shots late in games, let's not forget whom we're talking about here. I dislike the guy as much as the next sports fan with a pulse and a television, but he makes the term "beast mode" almost seem appropriate for use in sports journalism. The luxury of LeBron is his ability to be so dominant in games that the final minutes aren't important. As if it was in doubt, LeBron's performance in Boston proved that he's more than prepared to step up in big game situations, but he's yet to prove that he's up for the big moment.
Dwayne Wade has proven himself capable of brilliance time and time again, James Harden is OKC's most well-rounded (not best) player, and Westbrook is showing naysayers that his shoot-first-have-it out-with-KD-later point guard philosophy can be successful, but I think the most compelling matchup in the finals well be the Bosh/Ibaka matchup. As fun as it can be to mock Chris Bosh's emotional, don't-dive-because-you-might-hurt-me attitude, he's an invaluable cog in the Miami offense as their only post and mid-range scorer who compliments James and Wade perfectly. His ability to step out, board, and straight up make teams pay for over helping makes him Miami's X Factor in my opinion. What's scary is that he seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder for the first time in his career. Look out, he's not just happy to be there anymore.
Serge Ibaka makes for some of the most highlight worthy defensive plays in the NBA, on top of that he's really perfected a mid-range jumper that, during the Laker series, made Bynum and Pau look like second fiddles to the Perk-Ibaka tandem in the post. Given Miami's lack of interior scoring, look for OKC to go small again as they did in San Antonio. His ability to check Bosh, patrol the paint, and hit open jumpers could pay championship dividends.
For all their differences in personel, these teams are built to win in a pretty similar, fast-paced, fashion. Neither team is especially deep, with a roster centered around three scorers and a bunch of blue collar guys who know their respective roles, and this series could go either way and will be hotly contested. With that said, I give a slight, but distinct edge to the Thunder heading into the series. With the exception of Battier's performance in game 7 of the conference finals, I've yet to see any of Miami's gunners step up and consistently hit the shots afforded them by James and Wade's penetration. I will say that Mario Chalmers' play has been drasticly undervalued and he may be due for a coming out party similar to Jeff Teague's rise to relavance against D. Rose last season, but as I mentioned before, Miami is facing a mirror image of themselves in the athleticism department. As a result, if this series becomes essentially a battle of "Big Threes" OKC's trio compliments each other a little better than the three amigos of South Beach.
On the OKC end, I think the Thunder learned a lot real quick from the Spurs about how to play as a team and share the ball. To take such a shot to the mouth from San Antonio (with emphasis on game 2) and recover so quickly and thoroughly is a testament to that team's character and coaching. I kind of feel like the Thunder said "if you can't beat them, join them" and their more unified offense makes them a scary team that I feel has one or two more dimensions than Miami that may prove to be the difference.
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
The Ascent of Stan
Stan Van Gundy is a man who has made mistakes. Clearly, this blanket statement alone proves me worthy of NBA analysis. Clearly, I'm hoping you pick up on my sarcasm. The now deposed coach of the Orlando Magic is now on the job hunt like most of America seems to be these days and joining him on the unemployment line is the Magic's former General Manager, Otis Smith. Notice, however that the title of this piece refers to the "ascent" of Stan (and incidentally a pretty catchy Ben Folds tune) and the word choice is indeed intentional. For while Van Gundy and the Orlando Magic are coming off a relative trouncing at the hands of arguably the deepest team in the Eastern Conference, the Indiana Pacers, where they lost each game by an average of 14.5 points, Stan Van Gundy's resume may read better than recent events would lead you to believe.
Here is a man with a career regular season winning percentage of .641 who has improved every team he's ever coached, never missed the playoffs with exception of the '05-'06 where he (pushed out or not) resigned from Miami, and led the Magic to the Finals in 2009. Now, the logical counter to that argument is to point out the tools he had to work with. A just blossoming Dwayne Wade and a productive Shaquille O'Neal in Miami and, of course, a center dominant enough on offense to warrant an offense specifically designed for him to pound the point or kick it out for an open three, and one of the best paint defenders this league has seen in recent years, Dwight Howard. As much as I empathize with the notion that Stan would be nothing without his players, can you name me a coach who would?
Before you go thinking I've reserved the front seat of this guy's bandwagon, I would be remissed if I didn't point out some flaws in a coach whom, to this point, I've been making out to be some sort of modern-day Adonis in the very, very, figurative sense of the name. The most important and, in some cases, toughest aspect of coaching on any level is managing a locker room. It is essential to success for a coach to keep their players engaged and on the same page with each other and the goal at hand. A coach must, in the simplest sense, show his players the big picture and help them take the necessary steps to make that picture a reality. For whatever reason, Stan Van Gundy seems to struggle with that.
Whether or not you believe Pat Riley pushed Stan out of Miami, it's clear he left South Beach about as unceremoniously as LeBron James came to it. Shaquille O'Neal, who played under Stan in Miami referred to him as a "master of panic", essentially saying that he was unfit to coach when the pressure was on. Whether or not that's true is all a matter of opinion and not really worth breaking down, but while Van Gundy's Magic have never gotten over the hump, I can honestly say I've never once considered the Magic of this era the best team in the East, much less the league, at the start of the season. Also, I can think of a great many coaches who've never quite reached the promised land despite their best efforts in Jerry Sloan, Rick Adleman, and George Karl. Am I putting Van Gundy in the same class as those coaches whom I hold in such adulation? No, but I am saying that there's a compromise to be found between being a "master of panic" and simply not having the talent needed to win. More on that later.
Of course, most recently and perhaps most obviously, as we recently heard from Van Gundy himself, he and Dwight Howard were not all seeing eye to eye regarding the future of the Magic franchise, and it cost Stan his job. Make no mistake, Stan Van Gundy's disclosure to the media of private talks within the organization concerning his future with the team and his relationship is an egregious error in judgment on his part and made for one of the most awkward moments in television since CNN anchorwoman Contessa Brewer mixed up her reverends. Stan Van Gundy's passion and candor is as respectable as it is destructive and that moment, above all things, seemed to signify the need for change in Orlando. Up until a couple of months ago, I may have been inclined to agree with the collective majority and call for Van Gundy's head on a platter. Again, in the very, very figurative sense of the phrase, but Orlando's showing against the Pacers made me rethink my position and may sway yours as well.
Scribing you recounting of what went on in the series would be as much a waste of my time to write as it would be yours to read. I can only assume that if you dig roundball enough to peruse this less than condensed column, you're largely familiar with the fact that the Magic lost in five games to the Pacers and, while impressively winning Game 1 on the road and pushing Game 4 to overtime in defeat, the Howard-less Magic were outmatched by the Pacers, who would go on to at least rattle the Heat. The results of those Magic-Pacer games were not so much what caught my eye, but the fashion in which Orlando met defeat.
What I saw, with the exception of Game 3, was a team full of desire and grit and while I concede that there's no team that's going to walk into the playoffs and roll over and play dead, the passion and heart I saw out of Orlando was not indicative of a team without their star player for the forseable future and at odds with their coach. Now, anyone who says (and there are a couple) that the Magic are better off without Dwight Howard is a little silly and likely a little bitter, but there is no denying that something had to be done to quell the fires of Dublin... I mean, Orlando and I do believe the right move was made, but that move was not the release of Stan Van Gundy, but the mutual decision to part ways with Otis Smith.
Think of it this way, Howard's absence aside, every pregame telecast during the Indy/Orlando series was centered around how far Big Baby Davis could take this Magic team. You don't have to be a student of the game to know that there's something wrong with that outlook. I mean no disrespect to Glen Davis. I consider Big Baby and JJ Redick two of the most quintessential role players in the league that any team would be fortunate to have come off the bench for them, but under no circumstance should they be the focal point of your offense. Consider that when Dwight Howard's future with Orlando was still in doubt, it fell on Otis Smith make sure he surrounded Dwight with the kind of players that he would want to stick around and play with. Otis Smith responded by grabbing an over the hill Vince Carter, a lukewarm acquisition of Jason Richardson, a re-acquisition of Hedo Turkoglu coming off two woeful seasons in Toronto and Phoenix, and a solid, but not game changing pick up of Glen Davis which you can argue is a wash considering they gave up Bass to get him, not to mention losing Marcin Gortat in the process. Obviously, I named acquisitions in a pretty random order, but my point is that at no point did Otis Smith shake up this team enough to give Dwight Howard or Stan Van Gundy a chance of returning to the finals and it seems to me that Stan kind of took the fall for it.
Again, you can't overvalue the importance of a coach's chemestry with his team, so maybe this firing isn't all as premature as I'm making it out to be. I'm simply humbly submitting that Otis Smith's departure from Orlando is much more apt business decision than Stan Van Gundy's firing, but if the past is any indication of the future, Van Gundy will be back on his feet in some capacity sooner rather than later. I dare say the Indiana series showed me that the success in Orlando had a bit more to do with the magic of Stan Van Gundy than I initially gave him credit for and the Magic's shortcomings a bit more to do with lack of personel than something more personal.
Here is a man with a career regular season winning percentage of .641 who has improved every team he's ever coached, never missed the playoffs with exception of the '05-'06 where he (pushed out or not) resigned from Miami, and led the Magic to the Finals in 2009. Now, the logical counter to that argument is to point out the tools he had to work with. A just blossoming Dwayne Wade and a productive Shaquille O'Neal in Miami and, of course, a center dominant enough on offense to warrant an offense specifically designed for him to pound the point or kick it out for an open three, and one of the best paint defenders this league has seen in recent years, Dwight Howard. As much as I empathize with the notion that Stan would be nothing without his players, can you name me a coach who would?
Before you go thinking I've reserved the front seat of this guy's bandwagon, I would be remissed if I didn't point out some flaws in a coach whom, to this point, I've been making out to be some sort of modern-day Adonis in the very, very, figurative sense of the name. The most important and, in some cases, toughest aspect of coaching on any level is managing a locker room. It is essential to success for a coach to keep their players engaged and on the same page with each other and the goal at hand. A coach must, in the simplest sense, show his players the big picture and help them take the necessary steps to make that picture a reality. For whatever reason, Stan Van Gundy seems to struggle with that.
Whether or not you believe Pat Riley pushed Stan out of Miami, it's clear he left South Beach about as unceremoniously as LeBron James came to it. Shaquille O'Neal, who played under Stan in Miami referred to him as a "master of panic", essentially saying that he was unfit to coach when the pressure was on. Whether or not that's true is all a matter of opinion and not really worth breaking down, but while Van Gundy's Magic have never gotten over the hump, I can honestly say I've never once considered the Magic of this era the best team in the East, much less the league, at the start of the season. Also, I can think of a great many coaches who've never quite reached the promised land despite their best efforts in Jerry Sloan, Rick Adleman, and George Karl. Am I putting Van Gundy in the same class as those coaches whom I hold in such adulation? No, but I am saying that there's a compromise to be found between being a "master of panic" and simply not having the talent needed to win. More on that later.
Of course, most recently and perhaps most obviously, as we recently heard from Van Gundy himself, he and Dwight Howard were not all seeing eye to eye regarding the future of the Magic franchise, and it cost Stan his job. Make no mistake, Stan Van Gundy's disclosure to the media of private talks within the organization concerning his future with the team and his relationship is an egregious error in judgment on his part and made for one of the most awkward moments in television since CNN anchorwoman Contessa Brewer mixed up her reverends. Stan Van Gundy's passion and candor is as respectable as it is destructive and that moment, above all things, seemed to signify the need for change in Orlando. Up until a couple of months ago, I may have been inclined to agree with the collective majority and call for Van Gundy's head on a platter. Again, in the very, very figurative sense of the phrase, but Orlando's showing against the Pacers made me rethink my position and may sway yours as well.
Scribing you recounting of what went on in the series would be as much a waste of my time to write as it would be yours to read. I can only assume that if you dig roundball enough to peruse this less than condensed column, you're largely familiar with the fact that the Magic lost in five games to the Pacers and, while impressively winning Game 1 on the road and pushing Game 4 to overtime in defeat, the Howard-less Magic were outmatched by the Pacers, who would go on to at least rattle the Heat. The results of those Magic-Pacer games were not so much what caught my eye, but the fashion in which Orlando met defeat.
What I saw, with the exception of Game 3, was a team full of desire and grit and while I concede that there's no team that's going to walk into the playoffs and roll over and play dead, the passion and heart I saw out of Orlando was not indicative of a team without their star player for the forseable future and at odds with their coach. Now, anyone who says (and there are a couple) that the Magic are better off without Dwight Howard is a little silly and likely a little bitter, but there is no denying that something had to be done to quell the fires of Dublin... I mean, Orlando and I do believe the right move was made, but that move was not the release of Stan Van Gundy, but the mutual decision to part ways with Otis Smith.
Think of it this way, Howard's absence aside, every pregame telecast during the Indy/Orlando series was centered around how far Big Baby Davis could take this Magic team. You don't have to be a student of the game to know that there's something wrong with that outlook. I mean no disrespect to Glen Davis. I consider Big Baby and JJ Redick two of the most quintessential role players in the league that any team would be fortunate to have come off the bench for them, but under no circumstance should they be the focal point of your offense. Consider that when Dwight Howard's future with Orlando was still in doubt, it fell on Otis Smith make sure he surrounded Dwight with the kind of players that he would want to stick around and play with. Otis Smith responded by grabbing an over the hill Vince Carter, a lukewarm acquisition of Jason Richardson, a re-acquisition of Hedo Turkoglu coming off two woeful seasons in Toronto and Phoenix, and a solid, but not game changing pick up of Glen Davis which you can argue is a wash considering they gave up Bass to get him, not to mention losing Marcin Gortat in the process. Obviously, I named acquisitions in a pretty random order, but my point is that at no point did Otis Smith shake up this team enough to give Dwight Howard or Stan Van Gundy a chance of returning to the finals and it seems to me that Stan kind of took the fall for it.
Again, you can't overvalue the importance of a coach's chemestry with his team, so maybe this firing isn't all as premature as I'm making it out to be. I'm simply humbly submitting that Otis Smith's departure from Orlando is much more apt business decision than Stan Van Gundy's firing, but if the past is any indication of the future, Van Gundy will be back on his feet in some capacity sooner rather than later. I dare say the Indiana series showed me that the success in Orlando had a bit more to do with the magic of Stan Van Gundy than I initially gave him credit for and the Magic's shortcomings a bit more to do with lack of personel than something more personal.
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